Job creation in the US decelerated for August, as indicated by the ADP report. This suggests that the U.S. economy, which has been resilient, could potentially be entering a phase of moderation due to the increased influence of elevated interest rates.

Yesterday’s JOLTS data came in at 8.83m. This was lower than the previous 9.17m and below the consensus of 9.49m. This reiterates the part of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech suggesting that the US labour market is continuing to rebalance. Chair Powell pointed out that “Job openings remain high but are trending lower” and that “The rebalancing of the labour market has continued over the past year but…

USDOLLAR short-term analysis.

GER30 top-down analysis.

The US 10-year yield is trading near 4.25%, at levels last seen at the end of 2022. The underlying driver is a strong US economy and the sense that the Fed will leave rates “higher for longer.” The strong US-10 year is having an impact on the spread between the US and Canadian 10-year bonds.

Fed Chair Powell’s delivery at Jackson Hole had a hawkishness to it. He said that “although inflation has moved down from its peak…it remains too high.” This comes after the Fed’s 11 rate hikes since the beginning of 2022, which has the target range currently at 5.25%-5.5%. At face value, this seems restrictive, however labour markets are still tight, and GDP is still growing at a fair pace.

Gold has a robust inverse relationship to the 10-year real yield. The current correlation coefficient on the daily timeframe is -90%. Yesterday, the real yield declined by 6.57%, which saw the yellow metal respond and appreciate on the day.

With just a week left of the month, the NAS100 August candlestick (blue arrow) shows interesting price action. Initially, the month was bearish, with bears taking the index down to the month low of 14,555. However, the bears lost control at this level with the bulls taking over. The bulls have pushed price back up to the 15,350 levels and remain in control. We caution that the monthly candle is…

Constrained economic activity in the Euro Area is negatively impacting the EURUSD and influencing ECB policy. As such, the currency pair is sensitive to economic releases. Whilst the central bank has inflation foremost on its mind, the level of Euro Area slowdown cannot be ignored. Flash PMIs that were released today continue to indicate a challenging environment, implying contraction in both the manufacturing and services sectors.

The 10-year real yield and dollar were showing signs of moderation earlier today. However, both instruments’ trend-following indicators have now crossed up.

Microsoft presented a fresh proposal regarding the acquisition of Activision Blizzard. This move comes as a response to the initial proposition being turned down by regulatory authorities in the United Kingdom. The new deal includes a series of compromises and accommodations.