FXCM’s 2023 Outlook
FXCM's 2023 outlook webinar, hosted by senior market specialists Russell Shor and Nikos Tzabouras.
Senior Market Specialist
Russell Shor joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist. He is a certified FMVA® and has an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa. Russell is a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts in the United Kingdom. With over 20 years of financial markets experience, his analysis is of a high standard and quality.
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FXCM's 2023 outlook webinar, hosted by senior market specialists Russell Shor and Nikos Tzabouras.
The market has been resilient despite the poor showing. This is telling. Dow Theory maintains that a bull market has three phases. The first phase, accumulation, sees smart money recognising the current poor conditions, but positioning for the turn up. Bids increase as selling volumes diminish. There is a feeling of pessimism. However, prices have stopped going down. This matches with current resiliency.
Following the blowout jobs report, markets are largely data driven. This week sees a slew of important data. Out of the US inflation, retail sales and industrial production. On the UK front, the calendar has jobs, CPI and retail sales and the EU will see GDP on Tuesday. Diplomatic relations between the US and China are deteriorating rapidly following last week’s shooting down by the US of a Chinese balloon…
A surprise announcement on Friday saw Japanese Prime Minister Kishida appoint Kazuo Ueda as the new BoJ governor. Ueda is a hawk relative to Mosayoshi Amamiya, the current deputy governor. However, his current leaning will probably have a dovish tilt with monetary policy shifting slowly.
The markets have likely been running on the blowout non-farm employment change (NFP) released on 3rd Feb (orange dashed vertical), over any Fed communication. This suggests a heavy reliance on data and tomorrow we get the CPI at 1:30 pm GMT.
The SPX500 charted a higher trough and a higher peak on its weekly time frame. This is an uptrend. Its stochastic is in its upper quintile (green rectangle), suggesting bullish momentum. The longer time frame is meaningful; the index’s primary trend is positive.
Bitcoin is trading in its neutral area between its blue bands. It’s flirting with the bearish channel between the lower blue and red bands. The Bollingers are squeezing (green rectangle), suggesting a low volatility period. Bollinger theory suggests that this cannot be maintained for long and that volatility will expand following squeeze periods. A potential catalyst may be the CPI data due for release on Tuesday
Russia announced it is cutting its oil production by 500,00 bpd in March. This is in response to the West imposing price caps on Russian oil and related products.
The fear index (weekly chart) suggests the market is too complacent. It has flashed a potential pullback.
The US30 chart is on the cusp of moving back into its bullish channel between the upper blue and red bands. A cross into this region is positive.
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