Bitcoin Faces Continued Uncertainty Amid Key Support Levels and Upcoming U.S. Election
Bitcoin is currently trading just above key support near the 57,000 level, having moved sideways since the end of February. Momentum is flat with a slight downward bias. This sluggish performance may persist for another month as traders await clearer signals on potential U.S. interest rate cuts and the upcoming presidential election.
August was a challenging month for Bitcoin, with a nearly 9% decline, and September may not be much better. Historically, September has been the most difficult month for Bitcoin, with the cryptocurrency posting a decline in eight of the past 11 Septembers, averaging a 4.8% loss. However, last year broke a six-year losing streak with a gain of 3.96%. Despite this, September remains a tough period for Bitcoin.
We may see choppy trading until there is more clarity on rate cut expectations and the election. While the market has already priced in significant rate cuts, the uncertainty lies in their timing and extent. Additionally, a Trump win could be a positive catalyst for Bitcoin, while a Harris victory might have a limited downside effect. The Federal Reserve's next policy meeting is scheduled for 17-18 September.
Russell Shor
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.