The US30 closed higher yesterday as a syndicate of banks threw First Republic a lifeline. Four major US banks, Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo, will each make a $5 billion uninsured deposit into First Republic Bank as part of a $30 billion backstop by 11 banks to support the banking industry. First Republic's stock fell by 14.7% in after-hours trading after the bank disclosed that it…

Gold is generally inversely correlated to the US 10-year real rate. There may be short periods when they sync up positively, but these are rare. The current correlation coefficient is -59%.

USOil’s daily chart is trading in its bearish channel between the lower blue and red bands. The red Bollinger bands are moving in opposite directions as volatility has increased. The longer it maintains this channel the more pressure will be applied to the USOil price.

The banking sector is under stress. It started with the demise of Silvergate Bank and then gained a momentum with the failure of SVB and Signature Bank last week. However, it was exacerbated yesterday with news of a growing crisis at Credit Suisse, Switzerland’s second-largest lender.

Bond yields are declining sharply as banking worries flare up again. This time its European banks which have triggered the flight to safety. The catalyst is the refusal of Credit Suisse’s biggest shareholder to invest anymore capital in the troubled bank. This, in turn, sparked selling in US regional bank shares as fears heighten that there is a distinct sensitivity to any rate increases within the sector. The CME Fedwatch…

A calm has been restored to the market following the failure of SVB. The key event for today will be retail sales, out at 12:30 PM GMT. Traders will also be interested in the PPI data released at the same time. Yesterday’s CPI came in at 6% y/y, which was lower than the previous 6.4% y/y. Barring any surprises, the market expects the Fed to hike by 25 bps on…

China’s industrial production came in at 2.4% y/y. This is higher than the previous 1.3% but slightly lower than the 2.6% expected. Its retail sales printed at 3.5% y/y, a significant improvement from the previous months -1.8%. Fixed asset investment grew 5.5% y/y YTD, higher than the 5.1% for December.

Bitcoin jumped almost 9% yesterday and 7% on Sunday. This is in response to the confidence crisis across the US banking sector following the SVB failure. The cruptocurrency is also sensitive to front end of the yield curve repricing yields downwards.

The last three trading sessions has seen the US 02-year decline from 5.076% to 4.055%. Today’s trading is especially frenetic after weekended endeavours by regulators to stave off a bank run and prevent contagion from the SVB failure. Over the same period money has rotated into gold as a safe haven.

Chair Powell’s testimony in front of the Senate and House was hawkish and aggressive. Higher for longer and faster were introduced. The market briefly priced in a possible 50bps hike for March. However, the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, lower wage inflation and the uptick in the unemployment rate has the market rethinking this. Moreover, tomorrow sees inflation data – the next piece in the puzzle. Tune in to listen…

USDOLLAR’s correlation coefficient with the real rate is 66%. As long as yields decline and markets reassess the Fed’s actions for March, the dollar is likely to be influenced to a large degree.