Russell Shor

Russell Shor

Senior Market Specialist

Russell Shor joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist. He is a certified FMVA® and has an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa. Russell is a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts in the United Kingdom. With over 20 years of financial markets experience, his analysis is of a high standard and quality.

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  • USDOLLAR pullback seems disconnected from the fundamentals

    The USDOLLAR (bottom candlestick chart) pullback that started on Friday seems disconnected from the underlying fundamentals. On Friday, the real rate (top candlestick chart) charted an indecisive doji, whilst the greenback declined markedly. Moreover, the dollar has shown weakness in today's morning session, with minimal movement from the real rate. Over the two sessions, their correlation coefficient declined from 69% to 52%.

  • NAS100 drops as real rates push up

    Tech earnings have disappointed over the Q3 earnings seasons, and with the prospect of higher rates, the present value of the NAS100 will likely come under further pressure. As a result, the NAS100 has fallen back into its bearish area between the lower blue and red bands. The longer it stays in this channel, the greater the probability of lower index prices ahead.

  • Fed may only have hit neutral now

    A policy rate above neutral is, in effect, a contractionary monetary policy. Given that the Fed may only have just hit neutral, the Fed's hawkishness is understandable. Chair Powell admitted as such, saying that "the level of interest rates higher than previously expected."

  • Potential China reopening is supporting the price of oil

    There is optimism that China will reopen from their strict Covid policy. Given that it is the 2nd largest energy consumer, this will be significant. An unverified note on social media suggested that a "Reopening Committee" had been formed. With the OPEC+ cuts, this may catalyse further price appreciation and a higher peak.

  • Fed meeting to dominate Forex activity, USDOLLAR gaps up on open

    Forex markets this week will likely take their directionby the Fed announcement on Wednesday, 2 November. However, given the PCE data on Friday, and the resilience of median inflation, a Fed pivot has long odds, in our opinion. The central bank will deliver 75bps for this meeting, but it is unclear if it will provide 50bps or 75bps in December (48% vs 47% probabilities). FXCM's USDOLLAR basket gapped up on…

  • USDJPY rises after dovish BOJ statement

    The BoJ kept its short-term target at -0.1% and its 10Y at 0%. This dovishness was a unanimous decision, with the bank reiterating that it would take additional easing measures if needed. In addition, it raised its expectation of core inflation to 2.9% for 2022, dropping to 1.6% in the next two years.

  • EURUSD potential dip in strength following ECB 75bps hike

    The EURUSD daily is positioned favourably in its upper channel, between the blue and red bands. Moreover, the red Bollinger bands are diverging (green ellipses). This expansion suggests that volatility is increasing. It will be regarded as bullish if this is true and the EURUSD maintains its current channel


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