The NAS100 weekly chart retains its downtrend.
Russell Shor joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist. He is a certified FMVA® and has an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa. Russell is a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts in the United Kingdom. With over 20 years of financial markets experience, his analysis is of a high standard and quality.
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The NAS100 weekly chart retains its downtrend.
The real yield has found support at the 2.36% level (green horizontal line). This, in turn, has seen a bid emerge for FXCM’s USDOLLAR, which is up 0.26% today. However, market participants are looking ahead at the FOMC Statement at 6:00pm (GMT) tomorrow. The CME FedWatch Tool has the probability at 97% that rates will be held steady at the current target rate of 525-550. The market is looking to…
Tesla dropped by 4.79% yesterday to close at $197.36. The catalyst was a disappointing forecast from automotive chip maker ON Semiconductor, which said Q4 sales will be around $2bn, short of Wall Street’s expectations of $2.2bn.
Copper rallied as economic data came in stronger over the course of last week. Core PCE continued to show a decline in inflation, albeit the decline is slowing. October flash PMIs were good with the flash manufacturing PMI moving above 50, signalling expansion and the flash services PMI remaining above 50. Q3 GDP came in hotter-than-expected at 4.9% vs 4.5% with Core Durable Goods also showing strength.
On a longer-term basis, bitcoin has reestablished its uptrend. It has charted a higher trough followed by a higher peak on its monthly chart.
Core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge came in at 3.7% y/y, lower than the previous (and revised) month’s 3.8% y/y. On a monthly basis the reading was 0.3%, which annualises to 3.66%, which is still higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. Generally, these numbers matched market expectations.
The SPX500 has charted a series of lower peaks followed by lower troughs on its weekly chart. This puts the weekly into a defined downtrend. Importantly, the down trend’s trendline has shifted down from the green trendline to the orange trendline. This indicates that the downtrend is accelerating. It is not surprising to see the weekly RSI on the bearish side of 50 (green rectangle). The longer it maintains below…
Microsoft’s financial results for the September quarter came in better than expected. Part of this was due to the company’s cloud computing business. Importantly its Azure cloud business was up 28% on a constant currency basis, better than the 25%-26% company forecast. Of the 28%, three percentage points came from AI services, which bodes well for Microsoft (MSFT.us) as its AI offering are weighted towards the second half of the…
Bond yields may be near their peak or may have already peaked. If so, and the path of least resistance is down, there are ramifications.
Using UKOil (FXCM’s Brent CFD) as a general reference, the heat that drove oil prices in August and September has declined. The stochastic, a measure of momentum, has dropped below 80 and is angled down (red rectangle). Last week’s candle looks to have charted a lower peak, hinting at the cooling down in the energy market. However, to confirm the lower peak, this week’s candle will need to close below…
The market seems to be cheering Netflix’s (NFLX.us) Q3 results. Released after the market close last week Wednesday, 18 October, the Q3 results showed that nearly 8.8m net new subscribers were added for the quarter. This is the highest number in years.
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