Russell Shor

Past performance is not an indicator of future results Source: www.tradingview.com FXCM's DAX proxy, the GER30, is in the bullish area on the daily chart on the left. The right chart shows the hourly time frame. The bullish hourly crosses of both the EMAs and stochastic potentially align short-term traders with the daily sentiment (red ellipses). Given the bullish triggers, a movement of the stochastic to the 80 level and…

The Fed has a dual mandate to achieve price stability and maximum employment. In this regard, we have seen progress on both fronts. However, the employment market still has room to move before the Fed will be comfortable in terms of its mandate. A broad measure of unemployment in the US is the U6 unemployment rate (as opposed to the often quoted U3 measure). U6 includes discouraged, underemployed, and unemployed…

Past performance is not an indicator of future results FXCM's US2000, its proxy for the small-cap Russell 2000, has broken out of its 2021 consolidation (blue rectangle). We have applied a triple moving average to test the trendiness of the breakout. The green short EMA is above the orange mid-EMA, and the orange mid-EMA is above the red long EMA. We also note that the EMAs are developing angle and…

The BoE kept its policy rate at 0.1%. The votes came in at 7-2, with Ramsden and Saunders as the dissenters. Comments from the summary refer to an expectation of inflation dissipating over time, with the central bank viewing supply chain disruptions and global demand as normalising. The market was divided as to whether or not the BoE would hike. This was fuelled by the number of hawkish comments over…

In our previous article, we suggested that the USDOLLAR was at a potential swing low point. That is still the case after the Fed announcement yesterday. The next challenge for the greenback will be tomorrow when the non-farm employment change (NFP) is released. Given that this is one of the most anticipated data releases on the monthly calendar, it will be interesting to see if the swing low continues to…

Oil is up around 60% for 2021 and has a current price of approximately $82/barrel (Brent). OPEC+ is due to meet today and market participants don't expect a change to the current output schedules. This despite President Biden and allies encouraging producers with spare capacity to increase production. There is general alarm around inflation and the current call of "transitory" is debated. As such, a cap on oil prices will…

Earlier, Premier Li Keqiang commented that China faces downward pressure. He then suggested tax cuts and a reduction in bank fees to stimulate small and medium-sized businesses. These come after some worrying metrics out of China. Manufacturing has slumped in 2021 and the NBS Manufacturing PMI has recorded two months in a row under 50, which implies contraction: China NBS Manufacturing PMI Past performance is not an indicator of future…

Past performance is not an indicator of future results The NAS100 has had a terrific run since 12 October (blue vertical). From current close to low the index has appreciated about 9.5%. We refer to our previous article that considered the relative strength between the NAS100 and US30, which indicated that the NAS100 is generally inversely related to interest rates. Given this, the FOMC statement release and press conference today…

Past performance is not an indicator of future results The above shows FXCM's USDOLLAR basket on a weekly chart. Given the expectations of a tapering announcement from the FOMC statement today, the analysis here is important. Last week's candle is a potential swing low reference candle (aqua arrow). To be considered as such, this week's candle will need to close above the reference candle's high (aqua horizontal line). The FOMC…

Please note that past performance is not an indicator of future results. The top chart shows the weekly relative strength of FXCM's Nasdaq contract, the NAS100, to its Dow Industrials proxy, the US30. A movement to the northeast suggests outperformance by the NAS100 and a movement to the southeast suggests outperformance by the US30. The lower chart shows the weekly US10Y yield. Both charts have a black 30-week simple moving…

Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results. After a 2020 which saw the greenback's value decline significantly (off the back of the Federal Reserve's unlimited quantitative easing), 2021 has seen the currency stabilise and begin to appreciate. The USDOLLAR has now shifted up a gear. Technically speaking there are a number of positives to the weekly chart above. The USDOLLAR has moved above its black 30-week…