Russell Shor

The chart below on the left is gold's daily time frame. Price is moving into the area of weakness, between the lower blue and lower red bands. The daily stochastic has dropped below 20 (blue rectangle). As long as the stochastic maintains these levels, the precious metal is likely to be under pressure. In this regard the heikin ashi candle, which helps determine trend, has turned red over the last…

On Tuesday 7 December the Reserve Bank of Australia kept is cash rate at 0.10%, in line with the consensus forecast. The statement suggests that inflation generation is still a concern for the central bank, "…inflation has picked up, [but] it remains low in underlying terms. Inflation pressures are also less than … many other countries… because of…modest wages growth in Australia." Thus, a key determinant on monetary policy is…

In our estimate, the DAX weekly is now at a critical juncture in terms of this week's price action. The candlestick of two weeks back is a long red candlestick down (aqua arrow). The range of the candle shows the fearsome selloff as news of the omicron variant emerged. However, last week, the DAX settled and a spinning top was charted. This is a candle of uncertainty, with neither the…

Further to yesterday's article, the Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate at 0.25%, which was expected. The market has been pricing in a rate hike as early as March next year, and possibly even earlier, but the BoC reaffirmed its guidance that the first hike should come "in the middle quarters of 2022." This was more dovish than the market expected, and the USDCAD reacted by jumping higher on…

Weekly Chart Using 19 July as a starting reference, the UK100 has charted a higher trough followed by a higher peak. This is an uptrend. Last week's candle is setting up to potentially be the next higher trough in the series (HT?). If this week's candle closes above last week's high (aqua horizontal), the higher trough will be confirmed. This will create a platform for the UK100 to chart the…

The CAD has benefitted from the appreciation in oil over the last few days. Moreover, yesterday's Ivey PMI beat forecast, printing at 61.2 (60.2). The Bank of Canada is due to release its December rate statement and overnight rate today at 3:00 pm GMT. This is likely to introduce volatility. Rates are expected to remain at 0.25%, with hikes expected by markets in March next year. This would be earlier…

Bitcoin is currently trading at $51,000. This is ~26% down from its 10 November high of 60,900. An astounding quarter of its value was wiped out in just under a month. It's also a 50% retracement from its July low (green horizontal). However, in terms of peak and trough analysis and despite its mammoth decline, BTCUSD has a higher trough followed by a higher peak. This is the definition of…

Weekly Chart The DAX sold down heavily during the week ending 26 November. Last week was defined by uncertainty and a spinning top charted – bulls tried to take price higher, bears tried to take price lower, but the market closed relatively flat. Participants pay close attention to the 14,900 area, which is an identified area of support. Last week's candle (aqua arrow) is the lowest candle in a three-candle…

US30 FXCM's Dow Industrials proxy, the US30, is showing signs of support. The green short moving average is above the slower orange moving average (blue rectangle). The stochastic is also showing a growing momentum and has moved above 80 (aqua arrow). The longer the stochastic stays in this area the great the likelihood of a swing movement in the US30. Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future…

In our previous article, we suggested weakness in the XAUUSD daily chart. The below left shows the daily gold heikin ashi chart. Heiken ashi candles are trend-following indicators. In this regard, there is a big red movement down into our area of weakness between the lower blue and lower red bands. We draw attention to the daily stochastic which is positioned in the lower quintile (blue rectangle). Interestingly, the last…