Russell Shor

Past performance is not an indicator of future results It's been almost 2 weeks since Apple (AAPL) released its Q4 earnings (we note that AAPL's financial year-end is 29 September). The market was disappointed with the revenue number, which fell short of consensus. CEO Tim Cook attributed this to larger-than-expected supply constraints. Since then, the stock has traded sideways (blue rectangle). However, AAPL is fundamentally a very strong company. Its…

Past performance is not an indicator of future results The weekly SPX500 is trending up. It has a higher trough followed by a higher peak. At some stage, the current impulse (aqua line) will run out of momentum, and a correction will ensue. As long as the pullback finds support above the previous higher trough, the uptrend remains intact. The weekly RSI is not overbought, but the daily time frame…

Past performance is not an indicator of future results Further to our previous article, we consider UKOil's weekly scale (FXCM's proxy for Bent). After a pullback, UKOil has stabilised with the three EMAs (left chart) showing angle and separation. The right chart is also weekly, but we have zoomed in on the price action. A close above last week's high (aqua horizontal) is bullish, charting a reference low. This is…

Past performance is not an indicator of future results. Source: www.tradingview.com Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, the US10Y yield (blue line chart) was in decline. At the same time, the 10Y breakeven inflation rate was coming down. This period is denoted by the red down trendlines. The orange box represents most of the 2020 year, as authorities implemented unprecedented monetary stimulus to deal with the fallout of the pandemic. To…

Further to an earlier analysis, GBPUSD has started to lose its upside momentum. Past performance is not an indicator of future results. The right chart shows the daily GBPUSD time frame. Here, price is in the weak area between the lower blue and red bands. The daily RSI is also on the weak side of 50. The right chart shows the hourly times frame. Here, price has rallied to the…

Yesterday's USDOLLAR article indicated that the primary trend of the greenback is up. Today we zoom in on the price action. Past performance is not an indicator of future results. The left chart shows the USDOLLAR daily time frame. Price remains in the strong area between the upper blue and upper red bands. Moreover, the daily RSI is on the bullish side of 50. The right chart shows the hourly…

TSLA gapped over 5% lower today after Elon Musk's Twiter poll suggested a sale of 10% of his personal stock. In the poll Musk wrote, "Much is made lately of unrealized gains being a means of tax avoidance, so I propose selling 10% of my Tesla stock. Do you support this?" Of respondents, 57.9% answered in the affirmative. Past performance is not an indicator of future results The left chart…

Past performance is not an indicator of future results Source: www.tradingview.com Last week's decision by the BoE to hold rates steady surprised the market and GBPUSD was heavily sold. The left chart shows the daily timeframe. Here, GBPUSD is in the weak area – between the lower blue and lower red bands. The right chart shows the hourly timeframe. Here, cable has managed to stabilise in a sideways pattern (red…

Past performance is not an indicator of future results. Last week's price action confirmed the USDOLLAR's reference low, by closing above the previous week's high (aqua horizontal). It's important to acknowledge that the reference low does not guarantee a bullish swing. However, for a bullish swing to chart, this confirmation was necessary. Moreover, the confirmation respected the current USDOLLAR's momentum. Past performance is not an indicator of future results. Trends…

Past performance is not an indicator of future results Source: www.tradingview.com The weekly chart above shows gold (XAUUSD) from the beginning of 2019. The indicator below is the correlation coefficient between the precious metal and the US10Y. For most of this period the correlation has been negative (green rectangle). A reason for this is that bonds and gold are both considered safe-havens. During this period the yield on the US10Y…

The NFP print beat forecast coming in at 531k. The Dow Jones estimate was for 450k. This is a vast improvement over the last two months which missed expectations. Importantly, September's print was revised to the upside, increasing by 312k. Wage inflation came in at the forecast of 0.4% for the month, but was up 4.9% y-o-y. Of note. the participation rate held at the 61.6% level, which would be…