Economies

HKG33 extends this week’s slide after today’s data showed an escalation in China’s deflationary pressures, on both the consumer and the producer sides

The pair rises to critical levels, building on the gains form the Fed’s dovish hold after today’s US NFPs showed the addition of just 150,000 jobs in October

The US central bank refrained from raising rates for second time in a row on Wednesday, with a dovish tilt in its rhetoric, despite strong economy, tight labor market and elevated inflation

The real yield has found support at the 2.36% level (green horizontal line). This, in turn, has seen a bid emerge for FXCM’s USDOLLAR, which is up 0.26% today. However, market participants are looking ahead at the FOMC Statement at 6:00pm (GMT) tomorrow. The CME FedWatch Tool has the probability at 97% that rates will be held steady at the current target rate of 525-550. The market is looking to…

Copper rallied as economic data came in stronger over the course of last week. Core PCE continued to show a decline in inflation, albeit the decline is slowing. October flash PMIs were good with the flash manufacturing PMI moving above 50, signalling expansion and the flash services PMI remaining above 50. Q3 GDP came in hotter-than-expected at 4.9% vs 4.5% with Core Durable Goods also showing strength.

Bond yields may be near their peak or may have already peaked. If so, and the path of least resistance is down, there are ramifications.

Using UKOil (FXCM’s Brent CFD) as a general reference, the heat that drove oil prices in August and September has declined. The stochastic, a measure of momentum, has dropped below 80 and is angled down (red rectangle). Last week’s candle looks to have charted a lower peak, hinting at the cooling down in the energy market. However, to confirm the lower peak, this week’s candle will need to close below…

The US 10-year Treasury yield is trading at 4.97%, just shy of the psychological 5% level. This is likely to weigh on the stock market. In effect, the higher interest rates mean that yields on risk-free treasuries have increased making them compelling to investors. Even those sitting in cash will feel the benefit of the higher yields. Moreover, with these type of returns from yielding assets, it will discourage investing…

Less than a month after the Bank of England had paused its tightening cycle, emboldened by progress on price pressures, today’s data showed that inflation is sticky, keeping further tightening in play

Last week’s movement by gold has changed its technical position. The candlesticks have moved above the 30-week EMA and the EMA has bullishly turned up. Moreover, the weekly RSI has popped above 50 (green rectangle) which is the bullish side of the indicator. The longer it maintains above 50, the greater the momentum support for the yellow metal. Another positive is that gold’s candlesticks have broken out above the green…

UKOil retraced significantly towards its end-of-August low (green dashed horizontal) before finding support. Monday saw significant upside when the market opened following Saturday’s brutal attack by Hamas on Israel and the start of a new Middle East conflict. Nerves still abound that the conflict may spread in the region affecting supply lines, and risk premiums are keeping the oil price supported.