UK100 Bounces Off Key Support as the Economy Returns to Growth
The UK index rebounds from critical support today, as data showed GDP growth of 0.3% in November, but improving economic conditions could prolong the central banks restrictive stance
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The UK index rebounds from critical support today, as data showed GDP growth of 0.3% in November, but improving economic conditions could prolong the central banks restrictive stance
Core inflation for November printed at 4%y/y, which is unchanged, whilst headline inflation did moderate at 3.1% y/y (3.2%), albeit the pace of disinflation slowed from a month ago. The core month-on month reading was 0.3%, which equates to an annualised 3.66% - still higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. This combined with the higher than anticipated jobs data has put a dampener on the prospects of rate…
The FOMC statement is due to be released on Wednesday at 7:00pm GMT. The CME FedWatch Tool suggests an unchanged target rate at 5.25%-5.50%. Inflation is moderating and, although the NFP was higher than anticipated, the labour market does seem to be cooling. These all point at monetary policy being in restrictive territory, aiding in achieving the Fed’s 2% inflation target over the coming months. However, the market will be…
Friday’s jobs data was stronger than expected. The non-farm employment change printed at 199K, which was ahead of the 184K forecast. This resulted in a lower unemployment rate of 3.7% (3.9%), whilst average hourly earnings came in at 0.4% m/m, double last month’s 0.2% m/m.
China’s inflation contacted at the fastest pace in three years despite Beijing’s efforts to support domestic consumption, leading HKG33 to new 2023 lows
HKG33 faces pressure in a mixed month, after today’s Manufacturing PMI showed further contraction, highlighting China’s fragile economic state
The index is cautious after the UK Chancellor’s “Autumn Statement for Growth”, which could make the BoE’s struggle to control inflation harder
Wednesday’s CPI report showed further progress on inflation, which grew by the slowest pace in two years and the data will be welcomed by the central bank, which has stayed on the sidelines for the last two meetings
GBP/USD slumped on Thursday as Fed Chair Powell firmed up his rhetoric and heads towards a losing week, but steadies today as the UK economy avoids a Q3 contraction according to preliminary data
HKG33 extends this week’s slide after today’s data showed an escalation in China’s deflationary pressures, on both the consumer and the producer sides
The pair rises to critical levels, building on the gains form the Fed’s dovish hold after today’s US NFPs showed the addition of just 150,000 jobs in October
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