Russell Shor

With the stabilisation of prices comes the question as to whether UKOil is being distributed or accumulated?

The GBPUSD weekly has charted a higher trough followed by a higher peak. This puts the forex pair into an uptrend. The weekly RSI is on the bullish side of 50 (green rectangle). The longer it persists on this side, the greater the likelihood of further primary trend appreciation.

The ECB has lifted its main refinancing rate and deposit rate by 25bps to 4% and 3.5% respectively. This was in line with market expectations. The central bank is in on shaky ground given that the region is in technical recession. However, the ECB is firmly focusing on its fight against inflation. EU core inflation has shown signs of moderation lately (green arrow), but its rate of change (ROC) is…

The Federal Reserve (Fed) halted rate hikes yesterday, after 10 consecutive rate rises over 15 months. In effect, the Fed has chosen to evaluate the impact its rate rises are having. Nevertheless, it indicates that the central bank has made headway in addressing inflation.

The European Commission has said that Google’s advertising technology practices breaches EU antitrust laws. It has recommended that the company break up adtech, its ad business.

The GER30 has moved into its bullish channel.

The direction of CPI will give the Fed some room to breathe, and a pause is likely this month. A continuation in the trend will further please the Fed and make further hikes this year unlikely, as previous increases finally pass through the transmission mechanism.

TSLA.us is up 145% since its January low. The stock is benefiting from enthusiasm around tax credits, its charging network, and the Cybertruck.

China CPI and PPI disappointed last week. This week US CPI will be released on Tuesday and the Fed statement is scheduled for Wednesday. The market is pricing in a pause but given the RBA and BoC surprise hikes last week, it is going to be close. Thursday has the ECB expected to hike by 25 bps and Friday will see the BoJ Policy Rate announcement. Tune in to this…

There is generally a positive relationship between FXCM’s USDOLLAR basket and the US fixed income market. Therefore, it is surprising that the USDOLLAR charted a lower peak whilst the US 2-year note’s momentum increased (as represented by the shift up in trendline on the top chart).

Netflix has moved passed its accumulation phase into a mark-up phase. It is trading above its black 200-day simple moving average, and, importantly, the SMA is pointing up. We have added On Balance Volume (OBV) as the indicator underneath the price chart. Volume is a measure of supply and demand. In this case both the price and OBV are coordinated and trending up. According to OBV theory, this connotes that…