EURUSD declines following ECB hike
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The EURUSD's sentiment has shifted from bullish to bearish over the last two hours. The daily candle (still to complete) shows a long upper shadow. The high is where the bulls lost control to the bears. Since then, the bears have ripped price down, and EURUSD is now trading below its open.
The news that affected the currency pair came from both the base- and counter currency sides.
News which has fed into USD strength include:
- Advance GDP q/q was higher than anticipated at 2.4% (vs 1.8%).
- Unemployment claims were lower than expected 221K (vs. 234K).
- Core durable goods came in at 0.6% m/m against the 0.1% m/m forecast.
News which saw EUR weakness: the ECB hiked by 25bps today, but there were hints of dovishness in the press conference. President Lagarde, said that the "near-term outlook has deteriorated." She acknowledged that the ECB wants to break the back of inflation but has said that the central bank may or may not hike at the next meeting 14 September, depending on the data. If European numbers come in worse than expected and inflation continues to fall, the ECB could be done for this hiking cycle.
Russell Shor
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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