Economies

HKG33 faces pressure in a mixed month, after today’s Manufacturing PMI showed further contraction, highlighting China’s fragile economic state

The index is cautious after the UK Chancellor’s “Autumn Statement for Growth”, which could make the BoE’s struggle to control inflation harder

Wednesday’s CPI report showed further progress on inflation, which grew by the slowest pace in two years and the data will be welcomed by the central bank, which has stayed on the sidelines for the last two meetings

GBP/USD slumped on Thursday as Fed Chair Powell firmed up his rhetoric and heads towards a losing week, but steadies today as the UK economy avoids a Q3 contraction according to preliminary data

HKG33 extends this week’s slide after today’s data showed an escalation in China’s deflationary pressures, on both the consumer and the producer sides

The pair rises to critical levels, building on the gains form the Fed’s dovish hold after today’s US NFPs showed the addition of just 150,000 jobs in October

The US central bank refrained from raising rates for second time in a row on Wednesday, with a dovish tilt in its rhetoric, despite strong economy, tight labor market and elevated inflation

The real yield has found support at the 2.36% level (green horizontal line). This, in turn, has seen a bid emerge for FXCM’s USDOLLAR, which is up 0.26% today. However, market participants are looking ahead at the FOMC Statement at 6:00pm (GMT) tomorrow. The CME FedWatch Tool has the probability at 97% that rates will be held steady at the current target rate of 525-550. The market is looking to…

Copper rallied as economic data came in stronger over the course of last week. Core PCE continued to show a decline in inflation, albeit the decline is slowing. October flash PMIs were good with the flash manufacturing PMI moving above 50, signalling expansion and the flash services PMI remaining above 50. Q3 GDP came in hotter-than-expected at 4.9% vs 4.5% with Core Durable Goods also showing strength.

Bond yields may be near their peak or may have already peaked. If so, and the path of least resistance is down, there are ramifications.

Using UKOil (FXCM’s Brent CFD) as a general reference, the heat that drove oil prices in August and September has declined. The stochastic, a measure of momentum, has dropped below 80 and is angled down (red rectangle). Last week’s candle looks to have charted a lower peak, hinting at the cooling down in the energy market. However, to confirm the lower peak, this week’s candle will need to close below…