Russell Shor

Live NFP trade - 05 May 2023

Despite reassurances from financial regulators and bankers such as Jamie Dimon that the banking system remains strong, uncertainty continues to impact the banking industry. Shares of PacWest Bank, a smaller regional lender, dropped by almost 50% after confirming reports that it was considering "strategic options," including the possibility of selling the company.

Gold prices are being propelled towards record highs by three key factors: economic uncertainty, falling bond yields, and a weaker US dollar. This year, central bank buying has further fuelled the rally. The flight to safety among investors has also contributed to increased demand for gold. Other precious metals, such as silver, have rallied even more recently. Falling bond yields, a weaker US dollar, and other signs of a softening…

FXCM's USDOLLAR daily chart shows the low volatility of the right shoulder. Its Bollinger bands are squeezing tightly. Markets cannot stay at rest for long, so the squeeze suggests an expansion of volatility may be expected soon.

The bond market's recession indicator has been signalling an incoming downturn for several months, which could start this quarter. This is based on the inverted Treasury yield curves, specifically the spread between the 2-10 yields, and the spread between the 3-month and 10-year yields.

The markets are anticipating the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by a quarter-point on Wednesday and then take a long break. However, investors should be cautious as they recall the surprising move by Australia's central bank, which increased rates by 25 basis points on Tuesday and warned of the possibility of further rate hikes due to inflation. The market had assumed that the Reserve Bank of Australia would not…

United States core PCE printed at 4.6% y/y and the previous number was revised higher to 4.7% y/y. The annual change has a lower peak (LP) followed by a lower trough (LT) and its ROC is on the deceleration side of zero. This needs to maintain for the disinflation process to unfold towards target. However, the monthly core PCE came in at 0.3%, which is 3.66% annualised – still high…

An initial estimate suggests that the German economy has not yet escaped recession, with GDP growth remaining stagnant in the first quarter of the year after a contraction of 0.5% in Q4 2022. Despite the recent rebound in industrial production and improved weather conditions, the German economy remains in danger of recession due to ongoing challenges, including high retail energy prices and the impact of monetary policy tightening. Although industrial…

The Competition and Markets Authority stated in a press release that the acquisition would limit innovation and choice for U.K. gamers in the future.

The SPX500 had charted a higher trough followed by higher peak. This put the index into uptrend. However, the latest chart action has charted a lower peak. Some weakness has crept in, with market participants unwilling to take price higher than the previous higher peak.

FXCM’s CHN50 basket may be charting a top, with a potential head and shoulders pattern. This pattern is a reversal pattern, suggesting a reversal to the downside. We are watching the neckline – a break below will signal the pattern’s completion and will be bearish.