Russell Shor

Left shows the daily Ger30 chart. It is positioned in its bullish channel between the upper blue and red bands. Its RSI is above 50, which is the bullish side of the oscillator. However, the last eight trading sessions have drifted sideways in consolidation. This may be setting up a platform to take prices higher, given the positive indications.

UK headline CPI came in above 10%; forecasts were for a single digit print. EUR CPI also suggest sticky elements to inflation. ECB and Fed official’s commentary were hawkish in nature. The job market is still tight but initial unemployment claims have started to tick up. Markets will be looking at US GDP and core PCE for direction. This week includes Government Ueda’s first BoJ meeting and it is a…

There is an air of uncertainty, with participants unsure of what comes next for markets. A large part of this is that markets are hesitant of how Fed monetary policy plays out and are looking at Q1 GDP and core PCE for direction (released Thursday and Friday at 12:30 GMT).

The latest data shows that the LEI declined by 1.2% in March to 108.4. This follows a decline of 0.5% in February. From September 2022 to March 2023, the LEI was down 4.5%, which is steeper than the 3.5% decline for the previous six months.

Given the lag on the EU inflation front, the ECB will need to be more aggressive than the Fed for at least the medium term. This is reflected in the spread between the German (proxy for EU) and US 2-year notes. This is because short-term borrowing costs react quickly to changes in monetary policy.

Given the size of its contribution to GDP, monitoring the health of consumption is important. By and large there are worrying signs. Total vehicle sales and underemployment are showing fragility in terms of their momentum and chain store sales are negative. The existing homes sales series has bounced somewhat but is yet to pass the threshold implying an underlying positive momentum. Consumer sentiment has turned positive but there is a…

Yesterday saw a higher-than-expected average earnings index (3m/y) out of the UK at 5.9% (vs 5.1%-forecast). Today inflation has proved persistent with headline CPI (y/y) at 10.1% (vs 9.8%-forecast) and core CPI (y/y) at 6.2% (vs 6.0%-forecast). This suggests at least another 25bps hike from the BoE in May.

BAC and GS report q1 earnings

Last week’s FOMC minutes indicate a small recession near year end. Headline CPI declined but core inched up slightly. University of Michigan Inflation Expectations came in higher than previous. China’s GDP beat forecast and UK inflation expected to decrease into single digits. Other regions reporting CPI include Canada, EU, and Japan. Friday sees flash PMIs reported. Banks kicked off Q1 earnings last week with Netflix and Tesla to release this…

Yesterday, the EURUSD slipped from its bullish channel between the upper blue and red bands. Today, it is looking to reclaim that position. The daily RSI is above 50. The longer it maintains on the bullish side of 50, the greater the chances of higher prices ahead.

GBPUSD has slipped out of its bullish channel and is now trading in the neutral zone between the two blue bands. However, today’s candle (still to complete) shows positivity, with price trading off the low for the day. The daily RSI is above 50 and needs to be watched. If it maintains on the bullish side of 50, the bullish channel, between the upper blue and red bands, may be…