Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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The 02-year yield is a good proxy for central bank monetary policy. This is because the short end of the curve adjusts quickly to changes in the cost of capital. As such, we can look at the spread between two regions’ 02-year notes to get an idea on how the market views their respective monetary policies.
Last week, Fed Chair Powell testified on Capitol Hill with a hawkish testimony, but it was the UK inflation print and BoE’s 50bps hike that got the markets attention. This week is the ECB Sintra Forum with Wednesday scheduling a key panel discussion. Inflation prints out of the US, Canda, Australia, and Eurozone will be keenly followed with final GDP numbers out of the US and UK towards the end…
The dollar has shown minimal response to the aborted Wagner mutiny in Russia over the weekend. The restrained reaction likely indicates the uncertainty surrounding the future course of action following the recent challenge to President Putin's authority.
The SPX500 is up close to 15% since its March low of around 3,800. However, the VIX, which is commonly referred to the fear index may be suggesting caution.
The Central Bank of Turkey raised interest rates to 15%, from 8.5%. This pushed borrowing costs to their highest levels since late 2021. This is a stark turnaround of policy from President Tayyip Edogan’s unorthodox economic policies, which saw rate cuts in the face of higher inflation.
On Wednesday, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) filed a lawsuit against Amazon, accusing the leading e-commerce giant of deliberately deceiving countless customers to enroll in its Prime service and actively impeding their efforts to terminate their subscriptions.
UK inflation has come in higher than consensus. Headline CPI printed at 8.7%, higher than the 8.4% anticipated and core CPI was 7.1%, as opposed to the 6.8% expected. Headline inflation should decline over the next few months as base effects kick in. However, core inflation is likely to prove more resilient.
Gold has dipped and is testing its underlying support around the $1,940 area. Moreover, the precious metal is pushing into its bearish channel, between the lower blue and red bands. Its RSI, which is a momentum oscillator, is on the bearish side of 50.
Last week saw the Fed’s hawkish pause. This week will bring it back into the spotlight as Fed Chair Powell presents two days of Congressional testimony regarding the central bank's policy on interest rates. On Wednesday, he will address the House Financial Services Committee, followed by the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday.
The hourly chart pulled back to the 38.2% Fibonacci and price support around the 1.0908 level. This served as a short-term platform for buyers to regroup.
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