Russell Shor

The NAS100 is a growth index and is generally sensitive to interest rates. There are concerns that the Federal Reserve will keep borrowing costs higher for longer and this is currently impacting the index.

The USDOLLAR has continued to move inside its neutral channel this week.

According to a Bloomberg report, state-owned banks in Turkey have ceased their efforts to support the lira through expensive dollar sales. This change in approach could indicate the new finance minister's commitment to implementing a more "rational economic policy." The report also highlighted that the country's state banks refrain from providing comments on their interventions in the market.

EURUSD showing signs of downside pressure.

Last Friday’s NFP surprised to the upside printing at 339K – 193K was expected. Fed speakers talk about a skip in rate hikes and markets have repriced around this. Saudi Arabia announced a 1 million barrels/day cut for the month of July with an option to extend. The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets with a 25-bps hike but Bank of Canada is still expected to hold. On Friday we…

The US is predominantly a services-based economy. This makes the ISM non-manufacturing data particularly interesting. May’s figure was released today, printing at 50.3, down from 51.90 for April. This is a five-month low. When the numerical is above 50, companies are experiencing growth and expansion. The prices component of the survey came in at 56.2. This is down from 59.6 in April. The Fed is worried that services-based inflation is…

FXCM’s USDOLLAR basket has charted a higher trough (HT) but is yet to chart a higher peak. This leaves the greenback in limbo as we need more price action to assess whether it is trending or consolidating. A higher peak would validate the higher trough, HT, and put the basket into uptrend. A lower peak will suggest a consolidation sideways in a symmetrical triangle formation.

Saudi Arabia has decided to further trim its oil production by an extra 1 million barrels per day starting from July.

FXCM’s USDOLLAR index dropped yesterday from its bullish channel, between the upper blue and red bands, into its neutral area, between the blue bands. This was a movement of relative weakness. Technically, a decline in the USDOLLAR on the daily chart effectively normalised an overbought RSI.

GBPUSD has been range-bound but may be readying itself to test the upper boundary.

The weekly NAS100 has charted a series of higher troughs followed by higher peaks. This puts the index into an uptrend.