Gold’s primary trend remains up, suggesting current action is corrective in nature


Monthly Chart (Primary Trend)

1. The exponential moving average is a trend-following indicator.
2. Gold's green 5-month EMA is above its orange 10-month EMA.
3. This puts the EMAs into bullish mode.
4. The monthly RSI is on the bullish side of 50 (blue rectangle).
5. The suggests a bullish momentum is supporting the precious metal's primary trend.
6. The monthly chart serves as an indication of gold's primary trend and is the main determinant of trend direction.

Weekly Chart (Bullish Wedge Pattern)

1. Gold's weekly chart shows a series of rising troughs followed by rising peaks.
2. This puts the precious metal's weekly chart into a defined uptrend.
3. The price action between HP* and HT* shows a falling wedge.
4. This is a bullish continuation pattern.
5. We can derive a measured moved (vertical green dashed lines) to assess a possible upside target for gold.
6. The falling wedge pattern gives an upside target of $2,225.
7. Measured moves are academic – they may or may not be hit. However, they do suggest the bullish nature of the pattern.
8. The weekly RSI is above 50 (blue rectangle), but only marginally so.
9. If the price target is to be hit, the RSI needs to maintain above 50 for a sustained period

Daily Chart (Pullback to 61.8% Fibonacci)

1. Gold's daily chart shows a loss of upside momentum.
2. Its green 5-day EMA is below its orange 10-day EMA, and the daily RSI is below 50 (blue rectangle).
3. This is a downside bias and may be suggestive of a proverbial dip in an uptrend.
4. However, for this to be so, support will need to hold.
5. To this end, we note that price has pulled back to a confluence of support.
6. This includes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (blue horizontal), overlapping with price support (green horizontal).
7. For the "dip in an uptrend" scenario to unfold, we will need to see a golden cross by the EMAs, with the green 5-day EMA crossing bullishly above the orange 10-day EMA, and the RSI will need to pop above 50 and hold.

Russell Shor

Senior Market Specialist

Russell Shor joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist. He is a certified FMVA® and has an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa. Russell is a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts in the United Kingdom. With over 20 years of financial markets experience, his analysis is of a high standard and quality.

${} / ${getInstrumentData.ticker} /

Exchange: ${}

${} ${getInstrumentData.divCcy} ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%) ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%)

${getInstrumentData.oneYearLow} 52/wk Range ${getInstrumentData.oneYearHigh}

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.

Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.

Spreads Widget: When static spreads are displayed, the figures reflect a time-stamped snapshot as of when the market closes. Spreads are variable and are subject to delay. Single Share prices are subject to a 15 minute delay. The spread figures are for informational purposes only. FXCM is not liable for errors, omissions or delays, or for actions relying on this information.