XAUUSD Shows Some Stabilisation, but the Primary Trend Is Still Down
XAUUSD is showing tentative signs of stabilising after its sharp June decline, but the broader technical structure remains cautious while price trades beneath the black descending trendline. That trendline has capped every meaningful recovery since the March high and continues to define a sequence of lower peaks. It currently sits above price near the $4,250–$4,300 area, making it the key resistance zone that bulls need to overcome.
There are, however, early indications that downside momentum may be fading. The short-term EMAs are attempting a bullish crossover in the blue-circled area, suggesting that buyers are beginning to regain control after the recent base around the $4,000 region. That area remains important near-term support and a sustained break back below it would undermine the recovery attempt and keep the lower-peak/lower-trough structure firmly intact.
Momentum is also improving. The RSI has risen back towards the 50 level, which is the important dividing line between bearish and constructive momentum. A decisive move above 50, followed by a sustained hold, would suggest that underlying buying momentum is beginning to return. For now, though, the RSI is only testing that threshold rather than confirming a full bullish reversal.
For XAUUSD to turn technically positive, it needs more than an EMA crossover and an RSI recovery. Price must first break and close above the descending trendline. It would then need to develop a higher trough on any pullback, followed by a higher peak above the recent recovery high. That sequence would mark a genuine change in market structure from a downtrend into a developing uptrend.
The macro backdrop could provide some support. June US non-farm payrolls increased by only 57,000, while April and May payrolls were revised down by a combined 74,000. Although unemployment remained low at 4.2%, labour-force participation also fell to 61.5%, making the report softer than the headline unemployment figure alone suggests.
This should reduce pressure for the Federal Reserve to become more hawkish, which is generally supportive for gold through lower rate expectations, softer real-yield assumptions and potential dollar weakness.
However, the Fed still described inflation as elevated in June and maintained its policy rate at 3.50%-3.75%, so the payrolls report does not automatically imply imminent rate cuts.
The technical picture is therefore improving at the margin, but XAUUSD remains neutral-to-bearish until it breaks the black downtrend line and confirms a higher-low, higher-high pattern.
Russell Shor
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.