The Fed raised the policy rate by 25 bps to 4.75%-5%. However, its rhetoric is more dovish than the ECB’s, which is EURUSD supportive. The spread between the German and US 2-year notes (top chart) has charted a series of higher troughs followed by higher peaks. This denotes the relative hawkishness of the ECB over the Fed. The EURUSD is sensitive to this spread with a correlation coefficient of 84%.…

The Bank of England faces rising core inflation, with a recent increase to 6.2% from 5.8% in January. Service-sector inflation is a concern, with hospitality inflation proving difficult to combat. The Bank is paying close attention to inflation numbers and is likely to announce a 25bp rate hike, but will reiterate its commitment to using tools for financial stability. If broader inflation data continues to improve, the Bank may pause…

The Federal Reserve is facing one of its toughest decisions yet in terms of interest rates due to recent banking turmoil. Although the Fed had been preparing for another data-driven rate hike just a few weeks ago, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has led to a banking panic that has made the decision more complicated. As the Fed meets, officials must carefully consider how much weight to give the…

Join FXCM market specialists, Russell and Nikos as they discuss the current crisis in confidence surrounding the banking sector. In addition, the ECB has raised rates by 50bps and now all eyes turn to the Fed. However, it is uncertain that they will raise rates given the instability in the banking sector. This week also sees the BoE rate announcement.

The US02Y has declined markedly over the last eight trading days from a high of 5.09% to current levels of 3.74%. This has proven to be a tailwind for bitcoin. The cryptocurrency is up over 25% over the last week.

UBS Group has agreed to acquire Credit Suisse Group with the help of liquidity assistance from the Swiss National Bank. Under the terms of the merger agreement, Credit Suisse shareholders will receive one share in UBS for 22.48 shares in Credit Suisse, valuing the deal at around $3.2 billion. The Swiss government is providing 9 billion Swiss francs to backstop potential losses that UBS may incur. The merger comes amid…

The Fed's balance sheet increased at the same time that FXCM's US.BANKS basket declined. This, as the confidence crisis in the banking sector unfolded.

Gold’s daily candlesticks are trading in their bullish channel between the upper blue and red bands. The red Bollinger bands have expanded due to an increase in volatility. The longer the precious metal remains in this channel, the greater the likelihood of further price appreciation.

The US30 closed higher yesterday as a syndicate of banks threw First Republic a lifeline. Four major US banks, Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo, will each make a $5 billion uninsured deposit into First Republic Bank as part of a $30 billion backstop by 11 banks to support the banking industry. First Republic's stock fell by 14.7% in after-hours trading after the bank disclosed that it…

Gold is generally inversely correlated to the US 10-year real rate. There may be short periods when they sync up positively, but these are rare. The current correlation coefficient is -59%.

USOil’s daily chart is trading in its bearish channel between the lower blue and red bands. The red Bollinger bands are moving in opposite directions as volatility has increased. The longer it maintains this channel the more pressure will be applied to the USOil price.