Oil Tests Critical Support as Hormuz Flows Recover Unevenly
UKOil tests critical support as uneven Hormuz flows erode the supply premium.
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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UKOil tests critical support as uneven Hormuz flows erode the supply premium.
USDOLLAR’s next move depends on whether higher rate expectations and safe-haven demand outweigh doubts about Fed credibility and the growth risks from Hormuz.
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Oil surges, USDOLLAR breaks higher, gold hesitates and SPX500 rotates as the Fed takes centre stage.
With support cracking and valuations stretched, the SPX500 now faces a decisive test from the Fed, inflation data and Big Tech earnings.
JPN225 offers investors far more reward for taking equity risk than SPX500, but that advantage comes with heavy exposure to technology, semiconductors and AI.
UKOil’s overheated July rally has hit a geopolitical reality check, with $85-$86 now deciding whether the uptrend survives or unravels.
Apple is betting on new leadership and a major product refresh to revive innovation, regain AI momentum and rekindle excitement around its ecosystem.
Middle East supply risk is a key driver, with oil and the dollar breaking higher on inflation and safe-haven flows, gold and the JPN225 trying to rally against those same yield and dollar headwinds, and the yen sitting on intervention watch above 163.
The SPX500 is coiling between 7,420 and 7,580, with earnings season likely to determine whether weak momentum gives way to a breakout or sharper pullback.
Big Tech must prove that record AI spending can generate sustainable free cash flow.
Burnham may lift sterling sentiment, but fiscal credibility, relative rates and global risks will determine GBPUSD’s direction.
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