Thoughtful insights and approachable analysis.
- Nvidia earnings land tomorrow with AI expectations sky-high and technical momentum fading, the next move could be decisive.
- Salesforce reports tomorrow. Can Agentforce momentum and a $210 breakout reignite the rally?
- Marvell reports Thursday. Can the Google deal and surging AI demand reignite the rally, or is momentum starting to crack?

Quick Market Overview

US stocks were mixed as concerns over AI exposure, worsening trade tensions with Canada and tougher pressure on Iran weighed on sentiment. The US30 edged higher, but the SPX500 and NAS100 fell as technology stocks extended their longest losing streak since 2022. Attention now turns to Nvidia's earnings and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech for clues on both the AI outlook and the path of interest rates.

General Equity Market Health (SPX500)

The SPX500 is at an interesting technical inflection point after retreating from its recent all-time high near 7,800. The sharp early-August breakout has given way to a controlled pullback, with the index now attempting to stabilise around the important 7,650 support area; beneath that, 7,600 represents the more significant line in the sand and the former breakout zone. Short-term momentum has clearly cooled, with the 5-day EMA slipping beneath the 10-day EMA, but the broader structure remains constructive while 7,600 holds. Encouragingly, RSI has fallen from overbought territory towards a neutral 50 rather than collapsing into oversold conditions, suggesting that much of the excess momentum has been worked off without yet inflicting serious technical damage. A convincing rebound from 7,650 would therefore strengthen the case that this is simply consolidation within the prevailing uptrend and reopen the path towards the highs, whereas a decisive break below 7,600 would signal that the correction is developing into something more meaningful.

Fundamentally, the SPX500 is caught in a compelling tug-of-war between unusually strong earnings and a macro backdrop that offers increasingly little room for error. Second-quarter earnings have risen by roughly 50% year on year, although unusually large AI-related investment gains have inflated the headline figure; even excluding those effects, underlying profit growth remains impressive and extends well beyond technology. The catch is valuation, with the index at around 20 times forward earnings, while the Fed is confronting an uncomfortable mix of 3.4% headline CPI, a surprise 23,000 decline in July payrolls and underlying PCE inflation that remains above target. That puts an unusual amount of weight on this week's catalysts: Nvidia's results will provide a fresh test of whether the enormous AI investment cycle is still translating into earnings, July PCE will update the inflation picture, and Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech could reset expectations for monetary policy. The broader fundamental backdrop remains supportive, but with valuations elevated and Treasury yields still high, continued earnings growth will be important in sustaining the market's advance.

Potential Trade Setups

This week's potential trade setups centre on three high-profile technology names approaching important inflection points. Nvidia, Marvell and Salesforce are each carrying very different combinations of technical momentum, earnings expectations and AI-related catalysts, creating opportunities where the next move could be driven as much by guidance and investor positioning as by the headline numbers themselves. With key resistance and support levels already in play, the coming results should help determine whether recent rallies can extend, stall or reverse.

NVIDIA (NVDA.us)

Technical Analysis
Nvidia is approaching an important technical test after its powerful August rally peaked near $226 and abruptly lost momentum. The shares have now fallen below both the 5-day and 10-day EMAs, with the faster average rolling beneath the slower one, while RSI has slipped below the neutral 50 level, all signs that short-term momentum has clearly turned defensive. The key question is whether the current decline can establish a higher trough above the late-July low near $190, which would preserve the broader recovery structure despite the recent weakness. A decisive break below the $200 region will raise doubts about the strength of the August advance. For now, the longer-term structure has not broken, but with price momentum deteriorating sharply, Nvidia now needs to stabilise and attract buyers; otherwise, the current pullback risks developing into a deeper correction.

Caveat
If RSI fails to recover and remains below 50, this would reinforce the loss of momentum and could keep downward pressure on the share price.

Fundamental Perspective
Nvidia enters tomorrow's results with expectations already exceptionally high, making the outlook arguably more important than another headline beat. First-quarter revenue surged 85% year on year to $81.6 billion, led by a 92% increase in Data Center sales to $75.2 billion, while management guided to roughly $91 billion of second-quarter revenue despite assuming no Data Center compute revenue from China. Analysts are now looking for around $92 billion, leaving investors focused on whether hyperscalers continue to expand AI capital spending, chip demand remains robust, the Vera Rubin production ramp progresses as expected and gross margins hold around the 75% level. That makes tomorrow's release particularly important: Nvidia is increasingly being judged not simply on whether AI demand is growing, but on whether that growth can remain strong enough to justify the extraordinary investment taking place across the AI ecosystem. With the shares already under pressure ahead of the announcement, strong guidance and resilient margins could restore confidence, while any indication that hyperscaler spending is beginning to moderate could place further pressure on the share price.

Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM.us)

Technical Analysis
Salesforce is pressing into a potentially important breakout zone after a strong recovery from its late-June low near $150. The shares have built a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows, while the bullish 5-day/10-day EMA alignment remains intact and both averages continue to slope higher, confirming positive short-term trend momentum. The key test now sits around $209–210, where price is challenging the previous June high and an obvious resistance area; a decisive close above this zone would strengthen the case for a genuine breakout and could open the way towards the mid-$220s. Momentum is supportive, with RSI holding comfortably above 50 and climbing towards 70, although that also means the stock is becoming increasingly extended after a powerful run. For now, the technical picture remains constructive, but Salesforce needs to clear $210 convincingly to turn an impressive recovery into a confirmed breakout rather than another rejection from resistance.

Caveat
If RSI falls below 50, it would be a bearish development; if it then remains below 50, that would suggest underlying negative momentum is taking hold and increase the risk of further downside.

Fundamental Perspective
Salesforce reports after the close tomorrow against a considerably more constructive backdrop for software, but the real test will be whether the company can demonstrate that its own growth is beginning to reaccelerate. Wall Street expects roughly $11.33 billion of Q2 revenue and $3.27-$3.28 of non-GAAP EPS, broadly around the upper end of management's guidance, meaning the forward indicators could matter more than another headline beat.

Particular attention will fall on current remaining performance obligations (cRPO), where Salesforce has guided to approximately 14% reported growth, and on whether management remains confident in the organic revenue acceleration it expects during the second half of FY27. Agentforce is increasingly central to that story: ARR reached $1.2 billion in Q1, up 205% year on year, while combined Agentforce and Data 360 ARR approached $3.4 billion, although that figure includes $1.1 billion from Informatica Cloud.

The strongest positive catalyst would therefore be cRPO exceeding expectations, continued rapid Agentforce adoption, evidence that Salesforce's underlying businesses are strengthening after stripping out the Informatica contribution, and an encouraging Q3 and full-year outlook.

With the shares having recovered sharply from their June lows, tomorrow's report ultimately needs to strengthen the argument that AI is becoming an additional growth engine for Salesforce rather than a structural threat to the traditional software model.

Marvell (MRVL.us)

Technical Analysis
Marvell's technical picture has improved markedly since its late-July trough near $165, with the shares establishing a sequence of higher lows and higher highs following the bullish 5-day/10-day EMA crossover in early August. That recovery is now being tested, however, after the recent advance stalled around $250 and yesterday's sharp decline pushed the price back below the 5-day EMA and towards the rising 10-day EMA. Momentum is also at an important juncture: RSI has spent most of August holding above the neutral 50 level, supporting the recovery, but is now testing that threshold as selling pressure increases. The $220-225 region therefore looks important; holding it would keep the improving structure intact and leave room for another challenge of $240-250.

Caveat
If RSI pushes below 50 and remains there, it would be a bearish development, signalling weakening momentum and increasing the risk of a deeper retracement towards the $205-210 area, and possibly lower.

Fundamental Perspective
Marvell heads into Thursday's results with the investment case increasingly centred on whether exceptional AI demand can translate into sustained revenue and earnings growth. Management has guided to approximately $2.7 billion of Q2 revenue, representing roughly 35% year-on-year growth, and $0.93 of non-GAAP EPS, while forecasting accelerating revenue growth through fiscal 2027 as demand strengthens across custom silicon, optical connectivity, Ethernet switching and other data-centre products.

The Q3 outlook may therefore matter more than the Q2 headline itself: investors will be watching whether AI bookings continue to convert into revenue, whether non-GAAP gross margin lands within the guided 58.25%-59.25% range and whether custom-silicon growth can support further earnings expansion.

Expectations have risen further following the new Google agreement, which spans multiple custom products linked to the TPU ecosystem and carries a potential revenue opportunity of up to $120 billion through fiscal 2033, although that figure represents an upper bound dependent on future purchases rather than committed revenue. That puts particular emphasis on any commentary around the timing and scale of the Google ramp and Marvell's broader hyperscaler opportunity.

Marvell's share-price response is likely to depend most heavily on its forward guidance and whether management can demonstrate that the recent Google win strengthens an already expanding long-term AI growth story.

Hot News, Cold Logic

Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech as Fed chair is shaping up as an important test of his leadership and the central bank's credibility. While Warsh wants to focus on longer-term issues such as productivity and demographic change, investors are looking for clearer guidance on how the Fed intends to return inflation to its 2% target. His preference for less forward guidance and a quieter Fed has increased uncertainty, making the speech an opportunity to reassure markets that policymakers remain firmly committed to controlling inflation.

Final Thought

Markets have regained a measure of calm, but calm is not conviction. With oil easing modestly and the latest Iran measures proving less severe than feared for now, attention is turning towards Nvidia, US inflation and Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole address for reassurance that AI growth remains grounded in earnings and that monetary policy can contain inflation without reigniting bond-market stress. The broader bull case remains intact, but with expectations high across both earnings and policy, the margin for disappointment is becoming increasingly thin.