Global Macro and Markets Briefing – 28 September 2026
AI optimism is supporting equities, but persistent inflation and high bond yields are becoming the bigger threat to markets.
AI optimism is supporting equities, but persistent inflation and high bond yields are becoming the bigger threat to markets.
The BoJ raised rates in the fastest tightening cycle since 1990, but two dissenters add a dovish spin and the Nikkei's outlook relies more on the AI boom than monetary policy.
Markets now face a tougher trade-off as resilient growth supports earnings while sticky inflation and higher rates raise the bar for risk assets.
Sticky inflation and a worsening oil supply shock are pushing global markets towards a broader tightening cycle.
Strong US growth, an energy-driven inflation shock and rising global bond yields are keeping markets resilient but increasingly vulnerable to a renewed round of central-bank tightening.
The yen’s rally looks driven more by a hawkish repricing of the BOJ than fresh intervention, though intervention risk remains firmly in play.
Strong AI earnings are supporting markets, but sticky inflation, higher oil prices and renewed central-bank tightening are making the path for equities increasingly unforgiving.
USD/KRW slips as the BoK delivers back-to-back hikes to contain inflation driven by the energy shock and the AI boom.
Resilient growth, rising yields and energy risks are putting increasingly expensive markets under pressure.
The S&P 500’s pullback from record highs is testing technical support just as rising oil and bond yields collide with softer growth signals, making RSI 50 a key line in the sand.
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Oil, the USDOLLAR, XAUUSD and JPN225 are nearing decisive levels that could reveal the market’s next major conviction trade.
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