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Market Threads – Markets Turn More Selective as Rates Reassert Their Grip
Markets are turning more selective as firm yields and dollar strength test risk appetite across assets.
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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Markets are turning more selective as firm yields and dollar strength test risk appetite across assets.
The S&P 500 remains fundamentally supported, but 7,650 must hold and 7,780 must break as rising yields and inflation risk test the bull case.
Rising bond yields are forcing the equity bull case to rely less on cheaper money and more on sustained earnings growth.
AI optimism is supporting equities, but persistent inflation and high bond yields are becoming the bigger threat to markets.
Markets balance geopolitical hopes and Fed tightening as oil and gold face pressure, the dollar strengthens and AI fuels equities.
The SPX500’s bullish breakout, strengthening momentum and improving fundamentals point to further upside towards fresh highs, provided the RSI holds above 50.
Markets now face a tougher trade-off as resilient growth supports earnings while sticky inflation and higher rates raise the bar for risk assets.
Higher oil, elevated yields and AI uncertainty are testing markets, but easing pressures and solid earnings are keeping the broader investment case intact.
The SPX500 is testing key support at 7,580 as weakening momentum and tighter financial conditions offset still-resilient earnings.
Sticky inflation and a worsening oil supply shock are pushing global markets towards a broader tightening cycle.
Strong earnings are keeping the bull market alive, but rising oil, near-5% Treasury yields and doubts over AI returns are leaving far less room for disappointment.
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