JOLTS hides inherent weakness in jobs data
Source: www.tradingview.com
Job Openings and Labour Turnover came in yesterday ahead of expectations. It printed at 11.01m, ahead of the 10.28m forecast. JOLTS data is lagging and includes full-time and part-time vacancies. This makes its interpretation murky.
However, the kick up likely comes from the part-time sector. The top chart shows the increase in JOLTS (blue arrow). However, full-time employment has failed to respond. It is falling (red arrow).
Rather, it is the part-time employment series that has responded. This is the bottom chart and shows a positive correlation to JOLTs (green arrow).
Thus, at first glance, JOLTS may suggest a tight labour market. However, the lack of response in full-time employment in favour of part-time employment is more a sign of an inherent weakness.
Image by vishnu vijayan from Pixabay
Russell Shor
Senior Market Specialist
Russell Shor joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist. He is a certified FMVA® and has an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa. Russell is a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts in the United Kingdom. With over 20 years of financial markets experience, his analysis is of a high standard and quality.
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