Daily Market Bulletin – 15 March 2022
Market Developments
Markets are on edge as they monitor Ukraine-Russia news, rising Covid-19 infections in China and prepare for a potential rate hike by the Fed on Wednesday.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said that negotiations with Russia are going "pretty good" and that they "will continue tomorrow", meaning March 15 [1]. Despite those comments, the discussions have not produce any breakthrough so far.
The United Sates National Security Advisor met with his Chinese counterpart in Rome yesterday and discussed various issues including the Russia/Ukraine situation. A senior US administration official said that talks were "intense" and lasted seven hours, "reflecting the gravity of the moment".
Covid-19 cases in mainland China continue to rise, as the National Health Commission announced today 3,507 new locally transmitted cases on March 14, from 1,337 on the previous day. [3]
On the economic front, China's Industrial Production strengthened 7.5% year-over-year in February and Retail Sales climbed 6.7% year-over-year.
Minutes from the March 1 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia did not offer anything noteworthy, as members reiterated their patience around interest rates, which were held at 0.1%. [4]. Last week however, Governor Lowe had noted that "it is plausible that the cash rate will be increased later this year" [5], in what was seen as a hawkish shift.
Main Asia-Pacific stock markets were mostly down and European futures follow suit. On the FX space, the JPY Basket stays on the back foot and the US Dollar is tepid, while Antipodeans (AUD, NZD) are soft against the greenback.
Instruments Snapshot
EUR/USD is upbeat following its good weekly start, but stays below 1.1000.
GBP/USD finds some support after defending 1.3000.
USD/JPY extends its five-year highs above 118.00.
USD/CAD stays on the front foot, testing 1.2850.
AUD/USD extends losses towards 0.7150.
NZD/USD declines further below 0.6750.
GER30 trades with caution above 13,800.
US30 faces pressure and tests 32,900.
USOIL extends yesterday's losses towards 97.00.
XAU/USD drops for third straight day, trying to defend 1,925.
Economic Calendar Picks (GMT)
Market participants await Eurozone's Industrial Production and ZEW Economic Sentiment from the bloc and Germany (10:00), before they turn to US Producer Price Index. Ms Lagarde is on tap at 15:15, following last week's hawkish shift by the ECB.
See the economic calendar here.
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Market Specialist
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.
With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.
References
| Retrieved 15 Mar 2022 https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/vidpovidalnist-za-voyenni-zlochini-dlya-rosijskih-vijskovih-73561 | |
| Retrieved 15 Mar 2022 http://english.www.gov.cn/statecouncil/ministries/202203/15/content_WS62300011c6d09c94e48a6a93.html | |
| Retrieved 15 Mar 2022 https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-minutes/2022/2022-03-01.html | |
| Retrieved 03 Jun 2023 https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2022/sp-gov-2022-03-09.html |
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