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The pair found renewed vigor last week as Fed Chair Powell firmed up his rhetoric and now eyes levels not seen since 1990, with Tuesday’s US CPI inflation looming
GBP/USD slumped on Thursday as Fed Chair Powell firmed up his rhetoric and heads towards a losing week, but steadies today as the UK economy avoids a Q3 contraction according to preliminary data
The pair drops after its best week of the year, as the first hike since June by the Australian central bank was accompanied by a softer messaging around future moves
The pair dropped after the Fed sounded more dovish than previously and the NFPs showed weakness, but finds support today, defending key tech levels
The pair rises to critical levels, building on the gains form the Fed’s dovish hold after today’s US NFPs showed the addition of just 150,000 jobs in October
The spread between the UK and US 2-year notes (top chart) remains a strong driver of GBPUSD (middle chart). The current longer correlation is an impressive 86% (bottom chart). This suggests a strong positive relationship between the spread and cable.
The pair rises past key resistances and into the Ichimoku Cloud after the Fed boost, but reaches overbought levels and now awaits next week’s live meeting by the Reserve Bank of Australia
Yesterday's European core CPI (flash estimate) came in at 4.2% y/y, which is lower than the previous 4.5 y/y, registering as a two-year low. The spread between the German and US 2-year notes also declined by about 1.5% on the day.
The pair rallied on Tuesday after the BoJ’s YCC tweak underwhelmed markets, but eases today on verbal intervention and as investors brace for the Fed’s policy decision
The real yield has found support at the 2.36% level (green horizontal line). This, in turn, has seen a bid emerge for FXCM’s USDOLLAR, which is up 0.26% today. However, market participants are looking ahead at the FOMC Statement at 6:00pm (GMT) tomorrow. The CME FedWatch Tool has the probability at 97% that rates will be held steady at the current target rate of 525-550. The market is looking to…
Core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge came in at 3.7% y/y, lower than the previous (and revised) month’s 3.8% y/y. On a monthly basis the reading was 0.3%, which annualises to 3.66%, which is still higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. Generally, these numbers matched market expectations.
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