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The pair drops as further moderation in the pace of wage increases takes some of the pressure off the central bank, but Wednesday’s inflation data loom
Australian inflation eased substantially to 4.3% in November, which along with subdued economic activity allows the RBA to stay on the sidelines, but the pair finds support as market await US CPI update
The pair lacks firm direction as markets digest the recent US jobs data and Fed speak, ahead of Thursday’s CPI inflation report
The pair rises this week in the aftermath of the BoJ’s inaction and yesterday’s Fed minutes, which noted uncertainty around the policy path, as markets await the US jobs report
UK headline CPI printed at 3.9%, much lower than the previous print of 4.6%, and below the forecast of 4.3%. The decline is broad-based, and the Bank of England (BoE) will note the moderation in services inflation. This has fuelled speculation that the BoE will cut rates next year. In this regard, British bond yields declined on the inflation news.
The pair rises this week as the Fed embraced upcoming rate cuts and the ECB pushed back, but today’s weak European PMIs constrain it
The FOMC statement is due to be released on Wednesday at 7:00pm GMT. The CME FedWatch Tool suggests an unchanged target rate at 5.25%-5.50%. Inflation is moderating and, although the NFP was higher than anticipated, the labour market does seem to be cooling. These all point at monetary policy being in restrictive territory, aiding in achieving the Fed’s 2% inflation target over the coming months. However, the market will be…
Friday’s jobs data was stronger than expected. The non-farm employment change printed at 199K, which was ahead of the 184K forecast. This resulted in a lower unemployment rate of 3.7% (3.9%), whilst average hourly earnings came in at 0.4% m/m, double last month’s 0.2% m/m.
The pair has entered its second straight losing month as market hopes for an ECB pivot mount, but steadies this week as investors are cautious ahead of the policy decisions from both central banks
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is due to release its monetary policy statement on 19 December and there is some assumption that the central bank will end eight years of negative interest rates. Whilst this is speculative, the prospect of policy shift resulted in the yen jumping by its highest levels since January. Earlier today BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the BoJ has several options on which rates to…
The pair rebounds this week, but had a limited reaction to Wednesday’s third straight hold by the Bank of Canada, looking to Friday’s US jobs report for more direction
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