Bitcoin Resilient to Powell’s Hawkish Message
BTC/USD Analysis
Bitcoin has been having a bad year amidst a broader crypto rout and US Dollar strength on the back of the Fed's aggressive tightening cycle, which has led to 375 basis points worth of rate hikes since the March lift-off.
On Wednesday, the US central bank made another outsized increase and hinted at smaller moves in the future, as it will be taking into account "the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments". [1]
However, Chair Powell delivered a hawkish message, ruling out a pause and highlighting the need for "ongoing rate increases". This commentary boosted the greenback, sending EUR/USD and GBP/USD lower. BTC/USD also ended the day lower, but shows resiliency, trading in positive territory today.
Over the last few days, the popular cryptocurrency has been trading around the 50% Fibonacci of the September high/low drop and the EMA200, which places near-term bias on the upside. Given the resiliency to the Fed's latest hawkish messaging, BTC/USD has the opportunity to push for the 76.4% Fibonacci (21,698), but we are cautious for a broader advance beyond 22,798.
Despite today's upbeat mood, monetary policy remains supportive for the US Dollar, which works against Bitcoin and keeps it in precarious position. As long as it does not make progress, there is risk for a return below the daily Ichimoku Cloud (at around 12,890), although it is early to talk about a steeper decline that would challenge 17,566.
Markets now turn to today's jobs report form the US, that could determine the next leg of the move.
Nikos Tzabouras
Senior Financial Editorial Writer
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. With extensive experience in market analysis and a strong foundation in international relations, he brings a unique perspective to financial markets. Nikos emphasizes not only technical analysis but also on fundamentals and the growing influence of geopolitics on financial trends.
As a Senior Financial Editorial Writer, he delivers comprehensive and forward-looking insights across a wide range of asset classes, including equities, commodities, and currencies. His work explores how macroeconomic events, political developments, and global policies impact market dynamics, providing readers with a deeper understanding of both short-term movements and long-term trends.
References
| Retrieved 17 May 2026 https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20221102.pdf |
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