Bitcoin Hesitant at Key Resistance Despite Fed-Fueled Dollar Slide

  • BTCUSD
    (${instrument.percentChange}%)
  • COIN.us
    (${instrument.percentChange}%)

BTC/USD Analysis

Bitcoin rallied last month, as USDOLLAR strength was contained and the industry's hopes for an ETF launch intensified. A significant step towards such outcome was made after the District of Columbia Court of Appeals vacated the agency's decision to deny Grayscale's Bitcoin ETF proposal [1]. BTC/USD now tries to surpass the critical 38.2% Fibonacci of its 2021 highs/2022 low slump, which will turn it to 40,048.

However, the popular crypto hesitates at those levels, despite Wednesday dovish hold by the Fed and the weak NFPs, which weigh on the greenback. Furthermore, the regulatory environment remains challenging, especially in the US. Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase said during Thursday's earnings call that the lack of regulatory clarity is "a major issue that's holding back the U.S. right now" [2]. The crypto exchange reported a 52% slump in trading volumes for Q3, to just $76 billion, but managed to narrow its Net Losses to just $2 million. [3]

On the technical front, the recent lack of progress creates risk of slide back towards the EMA200 (at around 30,700). Daily closes below it would pause the upside bias, but strong catalyst would be required and the downside looks well protected.

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Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Financial Editorial Writer

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.

References

1

Retrieved 06 Nov 2023 https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cadc.38827/gov.uscourts.cadc.38827.1208547574.0_2.pdf

2

Retrieved 06 Nov 2023 https://s27.q4cdn.com/397450999/files/doc_financials/2023/q3/Coinbase-Q3-23-Analyst-Q-A-Call-Transcript.pdf

3

Retrieved 15 Apr 2024 https://s27.q4cdn.com/397450999/files/doc_financials/2023/q3/Shareholder-Letter-Q3-2023.pdf

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