Bitcoin has benefitted from a lower yield, NFP is the next data piece
Source: www.tradingview.com
The US 02-year yield (top chart) has declined, the catalyst being the shutdown of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, and a general ebb in confidence regarding the banking sector. At the same time bitcoin (bottom chart) has appreciated, benefitting from a perception that the slide in yields represents an end to the Fed's rate hiking cycle.
Bitcoin's rally is largely based on an expectation that the Fed will shift from a tightening policy to possibly cutting rates. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a potential decline of rates to 4.25% by year-end. In effect, there has been a repricing of rate-hike bets as market participants focus on financial stability risk.
Recent data shows a cooling in the economy and a moderation of inflation, a sign that rate hikes are working. The next data piece is tomorrow's US jobs report for March, which is a key economic indicator. If it comes in weaker-than-expected, bitcoin is likely to be supported.
Russell Shor
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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