Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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The top chart below shows the H4 relative strength ratio between FXCM's USDOLLAR basket and gold (XAUUSD). The ratio started to fall last week Wednesday (blue dashed vertical). I.e., the greenback was declining against the precious metal. The catalyst here was the spread of the omicron variant, and gold's regard as a safe haven. We do note that the EMAs and stochastic are rolling over (red ellipses), which may suggest…
The Turkish lira strengthened by as much as 15% after President Erdogan announced a plan to guarantee local deposits against market volatility. Accordingly, the government will pay the difference between the value of savings in lira and equivalent dollar deposits. The market has been heavily short lira, and the jump in value is likely a short squeeze. Moreover, the weekly chart's overbought condition has now been normalised (blue rectangle). The…
Stocks were sold down on Friday and have started this week under pressure. Below are the daily charts of the US30, SPX500, and NAS100. Of the three the NAS100 is the weakest, trading firmly in its weak area between the lower blue and lower red bands. The sell-off during the Asian session has also driven the SPX500 into its area of weakness. The US30, whilst weak, has not definitively moved…
The Turkish lira dropped to record lows against the dollar after its central bank lowered its repo rate by 100bps to 14% yesterday. This is despite an inflation rate that has surged in 2021 to above 17%. Moreover, the inflation rate has ticked up in recent months after the bizarre implementation of monetary policy, which flies in the face of traditional economic theory. The weekly chart below displays the capitulation…
As we head into the next tightening cycle, it is informative to consider the relationship between the dollar and gold. To this end, below is the weekly relative strength chart of FXCM's USDOLLAR basket and our XAUUSD instrument. The chart has a cyclical component to it. Between 2011-2013, the ratio formed a base or accumulation pattern (first green rectangle). When this completed, the greenback appreciated against the precious metal in…
The left chart below shows BTCUSD's daily time frame. Its heiken ashi candle is red and inside of the weak area, between the lower blue and red bands. The daily stochastic is below 20 and indicative of bearish momentum. The right chart is BTCUSD's hourly time frame. The stochastic has turned down and the EMAs are threatening to cross bearishly (aqua ellipses). If they succeed, it will be negative for…
Introduction According to filings with the SEC that were published on Monday, Tesla CEO Elon Musk sold 934,091 shares of the company. The value is near $906m. He also exercised options at a strike of $6.24, purchasing 2.13m shares. According to the filings, the transactions were part of a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan, dated 14 September. This is in addition to his previous sales earlier in the month of two…
The dollar's momentum has slowed as we head towards the FOMC statement release tomorrow (15 December) at 7:00 pm GMT. This is to be expected, as the tone of the statement will be a key focal point for market participants. However, December has been a less volatile month for the greenback. At the time of writing the December range of FXCM's USDOLLAR basket is only about 35% of November's range.…
Weekly Chart The weekly DAX (GER30) has confirmed a swing low. The reference low is the candle ending 3 December (aqua arrow). Last week, the price closed above the reference candle's high (aqua horizontal). This has set up a platform for a potential upswing. Whilst it does not guarantee an upswing, an upswing cannot take place without a confirmed swing low. We also note that the black 30-week EMA has…
Friday's headline CPI release indicates that US inflation is rising at its fastest pace since 1982. Month on month showed a rise 0f 0.8% and a 6.8% increase on an annual basis. Core CPI, which strips the series of volatile items, came in at 0.5% m/m and 4.9% y/y. The core increase is the steepest since 1991. Despite the high reading, large-cap US indexes gained on Friday and the week.…
The chart below on the left is gold's daily time frame. Price is moving into the area of weakness, between the lower blue and lower red bands. The daily stochastic has dropped below 20 (blue rectangle). As long as the stochastic maintains these levels, the precious metal is likely to be under pressure. In this regard the heikin ashi candle, which helps determine trend, has turned red over the last…
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