Russell Shor

Oil Technicals Oil prices have appreciated as the tensions between Russia and Ukraine have intensified. The chart on the left below shows the USOil weekly heikin ashi chart. These candles are trend-following indicators and are trading in USOil's strength zone, between the upper blue and red bands. I.e., the two trend-following systems are reinforcing one another. The weekly RSI is within regular readings, implying that there is still potential scope…

Ethereum reached its all-time high of $4,864.40 on 10 November last year. Since then, its price has deteriorated by 47.9% as of trade today, which is an enormous erosion of capital. During an interview with Bloomberg, Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum blockchain, said, "The people who are deep into crypto, and especially building things, a lot of them welcome a bear market. [This is] because when there are these long…

USDOLLAR Weekly Trend The chart below shows FXCM's dollar basket, USDOLLAR. First, price indicates a series of higher troughs followed by higher peaks, which is the classical definition of an uptrend. Next, we assess if the candle ending 11 Feb is the next higher trough in the series (HT?). To this end, last week's candle (green arrow) did not close above the aqua horizontal, which is our requirement for a…

Today's NFP trade ended with a 6.9 pip loss. However, the SL was reduced from 20 pips of risk to 6.9 pips. After the initial kick, volatility declined for a slow grind into the conclusion.

Weekly Chart The DAX (GER30) is moving laterally in a sideways rectangle pattern. Support is around the 15,000 level, with resistance around the 16,000 level (green shaded horizontals). Last week's candle is a bullish Dragonfly Doji. I.e., bears lost control at the low, and the week ended with the bulls in control. However, we are looking for follow-through this week as confirmation, which is yet to be established. This week's…

Daily Chart The chart below shows Apple's (AAPL) daily chart. We have included two Bollinger Bands to assess market sentiment. After a brutal selldown during January, AAPL is now on the border of its bullish zone, between the upper blue and red bands. If it moves into this region, it is a bullish development. The longer the stock stays in this region, the stronger the odds for bullish appreciation, significantly…

Daily Charts February has started well for the significant US large-cap indexes. Below we have: * the FXCM Dow Jones Industrials CFD, the US30, on the left; * the FXCM S&P 500 CFD, the SPX500, in the center; and * the FXCM Nasdaq CFD, the NAS100, on the right. We have applied: * two Bollinger Bands, which effectively gives three areas – bullish, neutral, and bearish; and * a stochastic…

GBPUSD daily threatens to move out of its weak area, between the lower blue and red bands, and into the neutral zone (blue arrow). The red bands have expanded with the currency pair's downside swing (green rectangles). We note that yesterday saw a long blue candle, with follow-through today. Given the increase in volatility from the broader downside move, this rally may provide an opportunity. To this end, we regard…

Longer-Term Chart & Correlation The charts below show the following: * The top chart is the trimmed PCE inflation rate. * The second chart is the RSI of the trimmed PCE inflation rate. * The third chart is FXCM's USDOLLAR basket. * The fourth chart is a 12-month rolling correlation coefficient of trimmed PCE inflation to the USDOLLAR. Source:www.tradingview.com The red dashed vertical shows when core trimmed PCE, and the…

Oil is bid on the Russian-Ukraine tensions. UKOil, FXCM's Brent CFD, rose to a seven-year high, almost hitting $90/barrel. Other exacerbating issues are tight supply and Middle East geopolitical tensions between the Saudi-led coalition and the Iranian-backed Houthis. The weekly chart below (left) shows UKOil in its bullish zone between the upper red and blue bands. Both red Bollinger bands are moving upwards, which suggests an uptrend. The UKOil H4…

The left chart below shows the EURUSD daily. The price moved from the bullish area (upper blue and red bands) to the bearish region (lower blue and lower red bands). The lower band has turned down (black ellipse). If the upper band pushes out (green square), it will signal a further expansion in inherent volatility. The righthand chart shows the EURUSD hourly. The trend-following indicators have turned down (black ellipse),…