USDOLLAR battles with resistance despite Fed hawkishness
FXCM's weekly dollar basket, USDOLLAR, has run into overhead resistance (shaded horizontal area). The basket has pushed upwards over the last three weeks but with only limited success. Last week, it reached a high of 12,402 before bears sold it down. As a result, this week's candle (still to complete) is an inverted hammer with a selling tail. Moreover, it is an inside week, i.e. it has a lower high and higher low than last week's candle. This candle denotes indecision.
The triple moving averages do show angle and separation. If this is maintained, bullish momentum is likely to increase the price. However, if the green fast moving average hinges, the upwards momentum may be waning into the resistance.
The bullish movement last week was off the back of the Fed's hawkish statement, and this week Fed Chair Powell stated that future hikes might be more than 25bps. However, after each impulse higher, the USDOLLAR retreated. This resistance to higher prices may be due to the threat of stagflation if oil continues higher. Stagflation will make monetary policy tricky to implement and may adversely impact economic growth if not managed correctly.
.png)
Russell Shor
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.