The USDOLLAR Monthly Chart Suggests Recession Risk Will Limit Fed’s Aggressiveness
The USDOLLAR is overbought. This excess may suggest that the Fed does not have as much room to be aggressive as the market has discounted.
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
Page 77 of 107
The USDOLLAR is overbought. This excess may suggest that the Fed does not have as much room to be aggressive as the market has discounted.
Shorts may target the GER30 Friday rally.
EURUSD capitulation signs after a bullish day yesterday.
The SEC has rejected the Grayscale Investments application to turn its $13bn Bitcoin trust into an ETF. Given the easy access to ETFs, this is considered a massive blow to the crypto industry. This repudiation comes despite Grayscale Investments retaining the services of Donald Verilli Jr., a top White House Lawyer from the Obama administration, to push for the approval
Given the vast chasm between the SNB and Fed, we believe the widening 10-year spread to be significant. Our interpretation is that the market is growing wary of recession risk in the US. Moreover, the CHF has traditionally been regarded as a haven and is likely a beneficiary of the market concerns. Therefore, USDCHF will be a currency pair to keep an eye on. However, we urge caution as the…
Oil bid as OPEC and OPEC+ set to meet over the next two days.
Real yields exert pressure on the pressure metal. As the Fed hiking cycle continues, this pressure may keep up in the near-to-medium term if the correlation holds.
Cryptocurrency weekly webinar.
The gold price retested its bearish continuation pattern following its breakdown.
The BoJ is defending the 25bp level on its JGBs. However, it is questionable if the central bank can maintain this, given the current global economy.
Copper is positively correlated with economic cycles. Therefore, its latest price action is a cause for concern.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.