The amazing retail sales illusion show
Retail sales increase on a nominal basis but slow on a real basis.
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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Retail sales increase on a nominal basis but slow on a real basis.
As Q2 earnings season officially starts, we consider two SPX500 daily charts.
The weekly gold charted a series of lower peaks (LP) followed by lower troughs (LT). Thus, XAUUSD is trending down on a primary basis. Therefore, in our view, the week of Monday, 18 April (black dashed vertical) was a critical period (T1) for the precious metal, marking its first LP.
The BoC surprised with a 100bps hike. The market was expecting 75bps, which was already a pivot from an earlier expectation of 50bps.
A policy cannot deal with the supply shocks impacting the economy. Market participants are aware of this and will continue looking for a return commensurate with the heightened risk. In this environment of uncertainty, the price is still adjusting. Thus it seems, for the time being, they may have settled on "cash is king."
Weekly cryptocurrency webinar.
The Bollinger bands are squeezing ahead of tomorrow's CPI print. This should make crypto bulls very nervous.
EURUSD hit parity earlier in the day. However, the underlying fundamentals may drive it even lower.
Banks look to borrow nearer the short-end of the curve and want to make their loans at higher rates. Given that the spread is narrowing, their profit incentive is declining, which implies stricter conditions for loans and headwinds to margins.
Q2 earnings kick off this week. This season will make PE analysis very interesting, given its decline towards its historical mean.
NFP came in better than expected, albeit trending down. Other data hints at cracks forming in the job market. FXCM market specialists, Nik and Russ, discuss this further. The yield curve remains inverted and is in danger of steeper inversion as the Fed continues with its aggressiveness. Wednesday sees the CPI release, with markets forecasting a higher headline number than previous. RBNZ and BoC also feature on the calendar. Shifting…
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