Weakness Seeps Into The NAS100
Weekly Analysis
Source: www.tradingview.com
Weakness is starting to seep into the NAS100 (top chart), with the index charting a lower peak. If it drops below 14,555.70 (black dotted horizontal) it will chart a lower trough, which will put the index into downtrend on the weekly timeframe. The pressure being applied to the NAS100 comes from the appreciation in the US 10-year real rate (bottom chart), which has accelerated upwards since the last week of July (red arrow) and is now yielding 2.10%.
This weakness is not surprising given the NAS100's time value of money characteristics. I.e., the NAS100 is a growth index, and the growth side of the market is particularly sensitive to interest rates. Last night the Fed left rates unchanged but the dot-plot pointed towards a "higher for longer" theme. This has pulled the real yield higher and put a pressure on the NAS100.
Daily Analysis
Source: www.tradingview.com
We can use the daily chart to monitor NAS100's progress towards 14,555.70 and a weekly downtrend.
Currently, the daily trend-following indicators and momentum are negative. The NAS100's green 5-day EMA is below its orange 10-day EMA, which is a bearish formation. Moreover, the daily RSI is below 50, which is on the bearish side of the indicator. The longer the RSI remains below 50, the greater the likelihood that the growth index will drop towards 14,555.70 and a downtrend.
Russell Shor
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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