USOil Rebounds As Traders Evaluate Omicron Fallout

  • USOil
    (${instrument.percentChange}%)

USOIL - H4

Th commodity lost nearly 10$ on Friday, registering its worst day since the April 2020 collapse and also its fifth straight losing week – the worst streak of year.

The plunge came as fear grappled markets on the news of a new Cocid-19 variant which the World Health Organization named Omicron and characterized as "a variant of concern", but it is still unclear whether it is more transmissible or more severe. [1]

Omicron was first reported from South Africa and has already been detected in Europe and elsewhere, with many countries having imposed travel restrictions on African nations.

Caution is required regarding USOil's next leg, since Friday's move came in the midst of the US Thanksgiving Holiday and information regarding the new Covid-19 variant are still sparse. Furthermore, OPEC and allies - a group that has come to be known as OPEC+ - are expected to meet later in the week, to discuss production output, in the aftermath of US decision to release oil from its strategic reserves.

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OPEC+ has been adding 400K barrels per day (bpd) every month since August, but Mr Biden's reserve release, has caused speculation that OPEC+ may retaliate.

From a technical prospective, the commodity's rebound today can lead to further gains towards 74.21-74, but catalyst will be required for a broader recovery that will allow it to look towards the 200H4 EMA (78.30-80).

Last week's drop has caused significant damage, as it closed below the 200Day EMA and sellers are at the driver's seat. As such fresh, pressure towards 67.31-66.61 is likely, although the 61.76-58 area seems remote at this point.


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Nikos Tzabouras

Senior Market Specialist

Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.

With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.

References

1

Retrieved 27 Jan 2022 https://www.who.int/news/item/28-11-2021-update-on-omicron

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