USDOLLAR continues to consolidate in longer-term pattern


USDOLLAR Weekly Chart

- FXCM's USDOLLAR basket continues to consolidate in a sideways symmetrical triangle (green converging lines).
- Last week's candle (blue arrow) is a spinning top. This is a candle of uncertainty – bulls tried to take the USDOLLAR up, bears tried to take it down, but the basket closed relatively flat for the week.
- The basket is trading above its black 30-week EMA, but the EMA is yet to turn up.
- If it does turn up, it may suggest that the USDOLLAR is preparing to breakout to the upside of the symmetrical triangle.

USDOLLAR Daily Chart

- There is an element of shorter-term support for the USDOLLAR.
- The basket is attempting to keep its position in its daily bullish channel between the upper blue and red bands.
- The daily RSI remains on the bullish side of 50 (green rectangle). The longer it maintains this position, the more underlying support for the greenback.


  • Liquidity will likely be light over the next two days, given tomorrow's US Independence Day celebration.
  • It is not surprising that there is support on the daily chart.
  • The hawkish comments by Fed Chair Powell last week at Sintra confirmed the recent dot-plot projections of two more hikes for 2023.
  • ISM manufacturing index is the key focus today, while the services survey release on Thursday is also important due to a larger-than-expected drop in May.
  • Jobs figures for June will be published on Friday, and based on Powell's recent comments, a significant weakness in the data would be necessary to consider a change to July's interest rate hike.
  • The June FOMC minutes will be released on Wednesday.
  • The dollar may gain support throughout the week as market participants find more justifications in the data and minutes to align with the more hawkish dot plot projections.

Trade the News: View our Economic Calendar

Russell Shor

Senior Market Specialist

Russell Shor joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist. He is a certified FMVA® and has an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa. Russell is a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts in the United Kingdom. With over 20 years of financial markets experience, his analysis is of a high standard and quality.

${} / ${getInstrumentData.ticker} /

Exchange: ${}

${} ${getInstrumentData.divCcy} ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%) ${getInstrumentData.priceChange} (${getInstrumentData.percentChange}%)

${getInstrumentData.oneYearLow} 52/wk Range ${getInstrumentData.oneYearHigh}

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed here.

Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.

Spreads Widget: When static spreads are displayed, the figures reflect a time-stamped snapshot as of when the market closes. Spreads are variable and are subject to delay. Single Share prices are subject to a 15 minute delay. The spread figures are for informational purposes only. FXCM is not liable for errors, omissions or delays, or for actions relying on this information.