The pair comes from an impressive October, which culminated to 4-year highs, but has been facing some headwinds after that and the current month is mixed, trading below the aforementioned levels.
Today the pair lacks firm direction and faces pressure at the start of the European session, testing its EMA100 on the downside. The below area, up to roughly 113.80, can provide support, since it concentrates the ascending trend line from last month's low and the 23.6% Fibonacci from the October Low-High rise. As long as it defends this confluence, it can set fresh month highs (114.45) and retains the right to push again towards the recently posted 4-year highs (114.70-4).
Given its recent indecision though, the USD may not yet be ready to conquer them and start thinking about 115.00. Furthermore, the current "hazy" pattern may persist, in anticipation of another important news event: Friday's US NFPs.
A break below the 113.80 area however, would open the door for another correction towards the 38.2% Fibonacci at around 113.00, although a deeper correction and a stay below this area does not look easy at this stage.
Past Performance: Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Senior Market Specialist
Nikos Tzabouras is a graduate of the Department of International & European Economic Studies at the Athens University of Economics and Business. He has a long time presence at FXCM, as he joined the company in 2011. He has served from multiple positions, but specializes in financial market analysis and commentary.
With his educational background in international relations, he emphasizes not only on Technical Analysis but also in Fundamental Analysis and Geopolitics – which have been having increasing impact on financial markets. He has longtime experience in market analysis and as a host of educational trading courses via online and in-person sessions and conferences.