US jobs numbers defies logic, USDOLLAR jumps
Source: www.tradingview.com
The US non-farm employment change data shows that 517K jobs were created in January. It was a surprise to the upside and exceeded the most optimistic forecast. The unemployment rate declined further to 3.4%.
This report is a surprise. An explanation is seasonal and annual benchmarking adjustments.
The question is how the FOMC views this report, likely cementing another 25bps in March.
In response, the US 10-year real rate jumped up (green arrow). FXCM's USDOLLAR basket followed its lead (red arrow). Both instruments are now trading in their bullish channels between their respective upper blue and red bands.
The longer that the bullish channels are maintained, the longer the market is seeking safety, given the upside surprise and its potential effect on Fed monetary policy.
Russell Shor
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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