US CPI comes in softer boosting confidence that target will be achieved
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in lower than expected, which is likely to bolster the Federal Reserve's confidence that inflation is on a sustainable path to the 2% target. This has increased the likelihood of a rate cut in September to 81.3%. June's CPI report was notably soft, with headline inflation falling 0.1% month-on-month, contrary to the predicted rise of 0.1%. Core CPI increased by only 0.1% MoM, below the expected 0.2%, and the 3-month annualised rate is now down to just 2.1%, even though the annual rate dipped only modestly to 3.3%. The market has reacted, with the 10-year Treasury yield dipping below 4.20% for the first time since March.
Russell Shor
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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