The initial jobless claims miss is a cause for concern
In a previous article, we suggested that unemployment has become a crucial series to watch. To clarify, we acknowledge that the series always bears watching. Still, in our view, it is the critical indicator that will determine the harshness of the proverbial soft- or hard-landing, given the current macro-variables driving the economy.
Source: www.tradingview.com
Yesterday, initial jobless claims came in higher than expected at 229K (205K forecast). This miss has resulted in the series's stochastic moving into its upper quintile (blue arrow). Moreover, initial claims are above their 3-month moving average (red ellipse). If the stochastic maintains its current position, upwards momentum will be underlying the series. This thrust won't bode well for the soft-landing scenario.
Russell Shor
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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