Economies

This is the fourth day of November in which the German index hits new all-time highs, while the European Commission upgraded its growth forecasts for the year

Yesterday, the US headline CPI beat the forecast of 5.8% y/y, coming in at 6.2%. The core CPI, which strips out volatile items such as energy and food also beat at 4.6% (4.3% forecast). As such, nominal yields are adjusting. Past performance is not an indicator of future results Source: www.tradingview.com The chart above shows the Heiken Ashi US10Y. Its yield is a nominal yield i.e. it has an inflation…

The pair enters its third straight losing day and sheds more than 0.5% on the week, having taken a double hit from high US CPI Inflation yesterday and poor Employment data from Australia today

US Consumer Price Index soared in October, with the Core reading rising to 4.6% y/y, compared to 4.0% in September. The pair’s original reaction was lower, as conventional wisdom dictates, but it quickly reacted higher

Past performance is not an indicator of future results Further to our previous article, we consider UKOil's weekly scale (FXCM's proxy for Bent). After a pullback, UKOil has stabilised with the three EMAs (left chart) showing angle and separation. The right chart is also weekly, but we have zoomed in on the price action. A close above last week's high (aqua horizontal) is bullish, charting a reference low. This is…

Past performance is not an indicator of future results. Source: www.tradingview.com Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, the US10Y yield (blue line chart) was in decline. At the same time, the 10Y breakeven inflation rate was coming down. This period is denoted by the red down trendlines. The orange box represents most of the 2020 year, as authorities implemented unprecedented monetary stimulus to deal with the fallout of the pandemic. To…

The commodity comes from two negative weeks, but starts the current one on the offensive, helped by the infrastructure bill that was passed by US Congress over the weekend

Past performance is not an indicator of future results. Last week's price action confirmed the USDOLLAR's reference low, by closing above the previous week's high (aqua horizontal). It's important to acknowledge that the reference low does not guarantee a bullish swing. However, for a bullish swing to chart, this confirmation was necessary. Moreover, the confirmation respected the current USDOLLAR's momentum. Past performance is not an indicator of future results. Trends…

The week was packed with important events and central banks were front and center, delivering consequential and market-moving decisions. We also had some key economic release and quarterly financial results from high profile firms

Past performance is not an indicator of future results Source: www.tradingview.com The weekly chart above shows gold (XAUUSD) from the beginning of 2019. The indicator below is the correlation coefficient between the precious metal and the US10Y. For most of this period the correlation has been negative (green rectangle). A reason for this is that bonds and gold are both considered safe-havens. During this period the yield on the US10Y…

The NFP print beat forecast coming in at 531k. The Dow Jones estimate was for 450k. This is a vast improvement over the last two months which missed expectations. Importantly, September's print was revised to the upside, increasing by 312k. Wage inflation came in at the forecast of 0.4% for the month, but was up 4.9% y-o-y. Of note. the participation rate held at the 61.6% level, which would be…