Bitcoin Extends Gains & Breaches Familiar Resistance as the US Dollar Deflates
BTC/USD is having a good week as sentiment shows improvement and the US Dollar slides, but key data from the US loom
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BTC/USD is having a good week as sentiment shows improvement and the US Dollar slides, but key data from the US loom
As long as inflation remains a worry and the prospect for higher rates persists, demand for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, will be facing headwinds.
Bollinger Bands suggest a volatility cycle that oscillates between band squeezes and expansions. For example, the previous four times, the Bollinger Width dropped below 0.1 (green dashed verticals), significant volatility increases followed, with the cryptocurrency declining meaningfully.
Interestingly, the recent drop in the greenback (blue vertical) has benefitted the NAS100 more than the cryptocurrency. Given BTCUSD's recent resiliency, we would have expected it to have had a more robust response to the dollar's movement. Instead, the NAS100 has risen by 5.6% compared with Bitcoin's 4.6%, showing its relative strength.
BTC/USD extends yesterday’s gains as sentiment shows improvement and the greenback retreats, after its recent Fed-fuel rally
Wednesday's monetary policy decision is weighing heavily on Bitcoin, with the Fed expected to deliver a 75bps hike. There is also nervousness around cryptos in general due to the White House's plans to regulate the industry.
The hotter-than-expected CPI rate yesterday hurt bitcoin. Headline inflation did not fall as much as hoped, and core CPI was much hotter than anticipated. The Fed will continue to hike, and risk-sensitive instruments will remain under pressure, including cryptocurrencies.
BTCUSD is sensitive to interest rates. Yesterday's real rate appreciation (up red arrow) coincides with the decline in Bitcoin (down arrow). As such, it's no surprise that BTCUSD is currently trading below $19K. As long as the daily stochastic remains in its lower quintile, bearish pressure will be present.
Ethereum is about to overhaul its mechanics in an upgrade called "The Merge." The revamp is due around Sept 15 and will transition from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake. This change is greener, using significantly less energy (up to 99% less, according to the Ethereum Foundation), with users validating transactions with tokens instead of mining.
Bitcoin, the first digital currency to scale, has managed to generate widespread visibility since the first units were mined in 2009. In that time, Bitcoin has enjoyed astronomical price increases, rising from less than US$0.10 to nearly US$20,000 in 2017. Given that the digital currency has enjoyed such impressive upside, it is easy to see why investors would want to trade this innovative crypto asset. Bitcoin is highly volatile and…
Bitcoin is still under pressure following Fed Chair Powell's hawkish Jackson Hole speech.
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