Strange Turkish central bank monetary policy drives the lira down; compounds the threat of hyperinflation
The Central Bank of Turkey surprised markets with a 100bps cut to 13%. It also signalled it intends to promote the use of the lira in the Turkish economy. Rate cuts have run concurrently with a spike in Turkish inflation, pointing to political interference as the country's bizarre monetary policy continues. In response to the rate cut, the USDTRY has spiked to 18.0904, up almost 0.85% from its open of 17.9404. Given the rampant global inflation rate, USDTRY is at real risk of capitulation, promoting rampant inflation, due to this strange loosening of monetary conditions.
Russell Shor
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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