Retail numbers strong with previous revised up; rates hikes on track
Today's core retail print came in higher than expected – 0.6% m/m vs 0.4% m/m. Moreover, the previous core number of 1.4% m/m was revised significantly upwards to 2.1% m/m. These are strong numbers that the Fed will certainly take notice of in its effort to quell inflation. This is because the Fed's rate increases influence the demand side of the economy. Consider the US Redbook index, which is a sales-weighted index of large US general merchandise retailers:
Source:www.tradingview.com
We note that the series has been coming down since the beginning of 2022 (blue dashed vertical). Nevertheless, it is significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels. Moreover, the momentum of the index has been rising since March (red dashed vertical – lower stochastic indicator), which suggests to us that the Fed's current hiking cycle is set to continue unhindered.
Russell Shor
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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