Real rate and dollar movement suggests shift towards risk-off sentiment
Source: wwww.tradingview.com
The real rate is between its bullish channel's upper blue and red bands (top candlestick chart). Moreover, the stochastic has pushed back above 80 (red arrow). If it maintains this position, momentum will favour a higher rate.
FXCM's USDOLLAR moves positively to real rates, and the two have a correlation coefficient of 68% (black rectangle). Thus it is no surprise to see the USDOLLAR (bottom candlestick chart) also move into its bullish channel.
The intermarket implications suggest a risk-off environment as the higher yield pressures the present value of risk and capital rotates towards the greenback for safety.
Image by Wokandapix from Pixabay
Russell Shor
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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