JOLTS hides inherent weakness in jobs data
Source: www.tradingview.com
Job Openings and Labour Turnover came in yesterday ahead of expectations. It printed at 11.01m, ahead of the 10.28m forecast. JOLTS data is lagging and includes full-time and part-time vacancies. This makes its interpretation murky.
However, the kick up likely comes from the part-time sector. The top chart shows the increase in JOLTS (blue arrow). However, full-time employment has failed to respond. It is falling (red arrow).
Rather, it is the part-time employment series that has responded. This is the bottom chart and shows a positive correlation to JOLTs (green arrow).
Thus, at first glance, JOLTS may suggest a tight labour market. However, the lack of response in full-time employment in favour of part-time employment is more a sign of an inherent weakness.
Image by vishnu vijayan from Pixabay
Russell Shor
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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