Job numbers surprise massively to the upside
The jobs data came in exceptionally hot today. The non-farm employment change printed at 353K, which is almost double the market expectation of 187K. The unemployment rate was 3.7%, lower than the 3.8% anticipated and monthly average hourly earnings is double expectations at 0.6%. Last month's non-farm employment change was also revised higher to 333K.
These are strong numbers and have cemented the likelihood that a March rate cut is off the table. Market reaction was notable, with the real rate climbing over 6% immediately after the release to 1.8%. This in turn led the USDOLLAR higher and negatively impacted on the S&P500 and other risk instruments. Gold was down almost a percent after the numbers were released.
As the market digests the news, markets may reprice furthereffectively acknowledging that the Fed's "higher for longer" narrative is still very much alive.
Russell Shor
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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