German preliminary GDP q/q disappoints
An initial estimate suggests that the German economy has not yet escaped recession, with GDP growth remaining stagnant in the first quarter of the year after a contraction of 0.5% in Q4 2022. Despite the recent rebound in industrial production and improved weather conditions, the German economy remains in danger of recession due to ongoing challenges, including high retail energy prices and the impact of monetary policy tightening. Although industrial production may sustain the economy in Q2, structural factors such as demographic change and the energy transition are expected to continue weighing on the economy. Today's GDP release highlights the likelihood of continued stagnation and a flirtation with recession throughout the year. While revisions to the estimate may occur, the overall trend remains down.
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Russell Shor
Senior Market Strategist
Russell Shor is a Senior Market Strategist at FXCM, having been promoted to the role in 2025 in recognition of his depth of insight and consistent delivery of high-impact market analysis. He originally joined FXCM in October 2017 as a Senior Market Specialist.
Russell holds an Honours Degree in Economics from the University of South Africa, is a certified FMVA®, and a full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (UK). With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, his work is renowned for its clarity, precision, and strategic value across asset classes.
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